Tag: Moon of Alabama

Will Biden Pull a FDR and Choose War to Deflect from His Own Failed Domestic Programs? Stay Tuned!

FDR Declares War on Japan and Germany (1941)

It must be tempting for the puppet in the White House to opt for war in eastern Europe rather than admit that his war on Covid and his Build Back Better plans are rubbish. All politicians look to “save face” when big mistakes are made. Any attempt to support Ukraine’s stupid-ness (something the US democrats were highly involved with when Obama was leading things in 2014) would easily shift to an all out war involving Russia.

For the geographically challenged, NATO’s promise in the early 1990s has be repeatedly broken to the point where NATO is not on Russia’s doorstep.

Moon of Alabama has an article out that outlines the latest lie around Russian build-up on Ukraine’s borders.

Ten days ago I wrote about the potential of war in the Ukraine:

There is fear in Russia that the U.S. is egging the Ukraine into a renewed active conflict with its renegade eastern Donbass region and thereby into a war with Russia.
…
The Biden administrations war mongering towards Russia may be seen to be free of cost. But it takes only one miscalculation in Kiev or some unforeseen incident in the Black Sea region and the situation could seriously escalate.

Moscow sees a salami slicing tactic at work that would only end with NATO directly confronting it on all its borders:

Moscow’s narrative is that the Western powers are deliberately fueling Ukraine’s revanchist instincts by arming it and encouraging President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is fighting for political survival, to believe that with Western support, a window of opportunity is opening to recapture the lost territories in Donbas and Crimea and thereby redeem his pledge to be his country’s savior.And second, as Moscow sees it, the rising tensions with Russia have become a convenient alibi to involve NATO directly in Ukraine’s security and make it a template of the West’s containment strategy against Russia.

It does seem similar to Bush II wanting to complete what Bush I did in Iraq, is being repeated now with Obama II (Biden) wanting to complete what Obama I did in the Ukraine in 2014.

Russia has stated that it would intervene in the Ukraine should Kiev decided to invade Donbass. It would be the end of the Ukraine Moscow has said. (Russia would likely end up with taking the majority Russian east and south of the Ukraine. The rest would end up as a landlocked agricultural Nazi infested enclave.)

The Kremlin has also multiple times complained about the ever increasing amount of NATO activities near its border. A U.S. study confirms those activities:

There were some 2,900 incidents between NATO and Russian forces between 2013 and 2020. The three-year moving average increased by more than 60 percent over this eight-year timespan.

Of course, NATO will accuse Russia of doing what they are in fact doing, that is what politicians do, time and again, which is why they always fail and war is always one stupid mistake away from reality.

Moon of Alabama outlines the lie below:

The U.S. for its part has claimed that Russia is assembling more troops at its borders with the Ukraine. The claim is false. The Ukrainian defense intelligence chief recently provided a map with a table which shows that Russia has current only 40 Battalion Tactical Groups (ATG) at the ready while during the last ‘Russia invades’ scare in April it had 53 BTGs ready to go. How 25% less troops at the ready are supposed to a new danger is not clear to me.

There is hope that Biden (Obama) will come to his senses and save face by choosing this off-ramp …

The Saker detects signs of secret negotiations between Washington and Moscow that may be at the core of the announced Putin-Biden summit:

Since a Presidential summit is only organized once both sides have already come to a general agreement, at least in principle, on at least some issues, if Putin and Biden do meet, that means that both sides have worked out at least the outlines of some kind important deal (not just empty statements, as was the case the first time around, at least officially).

In his recent speech Putin said “it is imperative to push for serious long-term guarantees that ensure Russia’s security in this area, because Russia cannot constantly be thinking about what could happen there tomorrow“.  If Biden is willing to not only give guarantees (the Russians, understandably, have *zero* trust in western promises, written or oral) but also to actually take actions, probably mutual, coordinated and verifiable actions by both sides, then a war in Europe could be avoided, rather easily in fact.

Will Biden undo the total mess created by Obama and Trump and their Neocon handlers?

Maybe.

This is all blow-back of typical US intervention in places where it puts the American Empire’s nose .. seems that you can’t fix stupid.

Peace out all!

-SF1

The Seen and the Unseen: Context Matters When Looking at Data

It shows in orange histograms the daily official number of cases in the Hubei province: How many people were diagnosed that day. The grey histograms show the true daily coronavirus cases. Crucially, these weren’t know at the time. We can only figure them out looking backwards. What this means is that the orange histograms show you what authorities knew, and the grey ones what was really happening.

From Moon of Alabama’s research, it is very important to know that what you SEE in each day’s COVID-19 “data” is only a portion of the truth. I believe that most people typically see only what is apparent at first glance. This is why when they hear a politician promise free ___ (you fill in the blank), they can only see the benefit, and not the expense, sacrifice or slavery that would be required to give someone something for nothing.

For a great rabbit trail on this topic, Frederic Bastiat’s book ‘The Law’ and his essay on ‘That Which is Seen, and that Which is Not Seen’ are outstanding (this and other of Frederic’s works available for free at the Mises Institute’s Bastiat’s Collection):

The essay “That Which is Seen, and that Which is Not Seen,” states: “In the department of economy, an act, a habit, an institution, a law, gives birth not only to an effect, but to a series of effects. Of these effects, the first only is immediate; it manifests itself simultaneously with its cause–it is seen. The others unfold in succession–they are not seen: it is well for us, if they are foreseen. Between a good and a bad economist this constitutes the whole difference — the one takes account of the visible effect; the other takes account both of the effects which are seen, and also of those which it is necessary to foresee.”

The ability to “foresee” the effects of decisions made are priceless in any family, business and especially the government. Wise people have this gift, so I am guessing that government tends to discard wise people for “yes men”. But I digress …

When one hears that there are 25 confirmed cases and 0 deaths from COVID-19 in one’s state (in the USA) or province (in Canada), etc. … that does NOT mean there are only 25 cases of COVID-19 in this geographical location.

When one sees this dashboard from Johns Hopkins:

.. one has to know that “confirmed” just indicates those who were tested POSITIVE for COVID-19.

So what does that mean? Well, similar to government stats, it is only part of the story.  L. Reichard White explains in this article:

In the early stages — when the number infected is still managable — there are the folks who are known to have COVID-19 and those who have come in contact with them and test positive or come down with the disease.

Barring that, however, someone worried about their symptoms would have to take themselves to a doctor or medical pro etc. who’s plugged into the reporting network.

But suppose they’re not sick enough — or worried enough — to seek a medical opinion? Or feel they can’t afford the medical system. Or are asymptomatic — that is, while infected, don’t show symptoms and so don’t know they’re infected.

So there are a lot of infected people that do not show up in this count. On the other hand, there are people included in this count that should not be since there has been historically a 47% false positive rate associated with the COVID-19 testing!

So we have to compensate for false positives and false negatives, but then there is the unknown carrier of this novel virus who may carry this 2-30 days WITHOUT symptoms!

… for the entire incubation period which is thought to be at least 14 days and possibly as long as 37 days. Also, possibly, even after recovery.

Add to this the fact that 80% of people might have ZERO symptoms when they get infected with this novel virus!

OK, so by now you are thinking, what if anything does the “official” counts do for the average person? Well, it does give one a sense of the tip of this iceberg.

Iceberg – 3d Illustration – What is Seen, What is Unseen

It’s these [facts] folks that make it clear there are a lot more cases of COVID-19 than show up in the official data so far. In fact, some scientists estimate that as of March 1, there were as many as 10,000 unrecognized cases in the U.S. How many folks have they unknowingly infected since then?

This explains why there’s no centralized way to stop the spread of COVID-19. Which means it’s up to you to protect yourself and your family as best you can.

So vitamin D (best accomplished with sunshine), vitamin C and practical (not obsessive) hand-washing should do.

Peace out crew!

-SF1

Know Your Enemy: Even Jesus Did This – Religion and Empire

While Sun Tzu said:

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

Jesus said:

“Love your enemies,
Do good to them who hate you.”

But do notice, in pragmatic terms, Jesus made himself scarce around the religious elites who were out to get him and his small band. He too encouraged the selling of a cloak (coat) to purchase a sword (gun) for the disciples to use as self defense in times of crisis.

However, the truth is there as Paul notes in his letter to those in Rome:

“But if your enemy is hungry, feed him, and if he is thirsty, give him a drink; for in so doing you will heap burning coals on his head.”

Jesus too set the stage for a unique way with dealing with those out to do one harm:

Do to others whatever you would like them to do to you.

While this all sounds like life on a personal level, this also extends to relationships between communities, cultures and countries as well. I am guessing I would get booed like Ron Paul did during a GOP debate in South Carolina years ago, but I stand by it. So would Francis Marion! But I digress.

The reality is that those that choose to do good in this world will find opposition. Even back in the 1st century Paul wrote to the Thessalonians:

“For we wanted to come to you — I, Paul, more than once — and yet Satan thwarted us.”

The Roman Empire had good roads too .. so this was not an infrastructure issue, but a real one with a real adversary. There is evil in this world that makes life difficult.

So on to the core of my message here and the article and book that led me down this strange path. “The (Real) Revolution in Military Affairs” by Andrei Martyanov does a convincing job at painting an accurate picture for the state of the American Empire, which by definition is the enemy of most of the people of the world and IF we were honest, considering our erosion of privacy and freedoms, it is also an enemy of its own citizens, not unlike the USSR of its day.

This book gives an insight into the evolution of weapons and the way they influenced international relations in the 20th and 21st centuries. It also defines Revolution in Military Affairs as manifested via policy, politics, and technology. It reviews some models which are useful in assessing the current geopolitical situation. This book also tries to give a forecast of the future development of warfare and the ways in which it is going to change the whole system of international relations, hopefully towards a new geopolitical equilibrium.

Some helpful early quotes from this book will help you see the value of knowing your enemy, knowing the truth, so that y’all can be prepared.

modern war between nation-states became so complex, in reflection of the tools of such wars, that it is an axiom, not even a theorem, that people who cannot grasp fundamental mathematical, physical, tactical and operational principles on which modern weapon systems operate are simply not qualified in the minimal degree to offer their opinions on the issues of warfare, intelligence operations and military technology without appropriate backgrounds. Failing that, what can one think but that they are merely in the business of content provision (filling space/entertainment) or of propagating the official line—of propaganda, in short—mostly with regard to warmongering? In today’s information-oversaturated world of massive egos nurtured by the dopamine of public visibility and of American politics turned into showbiz, these are the types who dominate the discussion on the most important, vital issue of war and peace in our time.

This is so true, the information overload renders most people helpless in sifting through the lies to find the foundational truth. So much of media is indeed government blow-horns used to confuse and disorient the sheep on any given day making them in fact impotent.

I can only hope that the knowledge readers will gain through this book will help to increase public awareness of the deadly consequences of even a conventional war between global superpowers and will help to dispel the war propaganda being pushed on the public by ignorant and incompetent pundits who have no business offering even an iota of their opinions on what is today a Revolution in Military Affairs of historic magnitude.

Again, the ignorance of the elite usually leads to the slaughter of the innocent. Herein lies the dilemma, how does one find the time to sift through all the Geo-politics while real life is raging right along side in real time in their own communities and their own relationships?

Those holding a modern Ph.D. in philosophy or political science, unless they have a serious education and experience in other fields, will be hard-pressed to derive any sensible conclusions on automation, for example, barring some self-evident and easily accessible truths such as that increased automation removes workers from the manufacturing floor, thus increasing unemployment. This same Ph.D. will have very little knowledge of what goes into the fundamental technological principles relating to the automation of modern industry or, for that matter, how G-code interpreters work for Computer Numerical Control machining centers and what is required to run them—a knowledge domain belonging to college-educated engineers.

This is why we have the blind leading the blind. Those at the top are ill-informed by their own ignorance in attempting to make good decisions. This happen not just in government committees, think-tanks or even at the state and local level, but this also occurs in most major corporations these days as technology has outpaced the knowledge that middle and upper management were taught as little as one decade ago.

The article by Moon of Alabama is a good one to understand the pragmatic situation we find ourselves in with the latest Russian technology advances (such as underwater drones pictured below) as well as the coordinated drone (two pictures down) strike on the Saudi oil production facility.

Artistic rendering of a drone submersible

Martyanov explains why the models the ‘experts’ use fail. He shows how the advantage of one weapon system against another one can be calculated. People who have had a military education know these formulas. Those who only studied political science have likely never heard of them.

I will allow MOA to be the expert on that aspect of this book.

Houthi drones on display

My own interest lies in the philosophic underpinnings of Martyanov’s book itself. More posts on this book will be in the works shortly.

Stay tuned.

-SF1