From Moon of Alabama’s research, it is very important to know that what you SEE in each day’s COVID-19 “data” is only a portion of the truth. I believe that most people typically see only what is apparent at first glance. This is why when they hear a politician promise free ___ (you fill in the blank), they can only see the benefit, and not the expense, sacrifice or slavery that would be required to give someone something for nothing.
For a great rabbit trail on this topic, Frederic Bastiat’s book ‘The Law’ and his essay on ‘That Which is Seen, and that Which is Not Seen’ are outstanding (this and other of Frederic’s works available for free at the Mises Institute’s Bastiat’s Collection):
The essay “That Which is Seen, and that Which is Not Seen,” states: “In the department of economy, an act, a habit, an institution, a law, gives birth not only to an effect, but to a series of effects. Of these effects, the first only is immediate; it manifests itself simultaneously with its cause–it is seen. The others unfold in succession–they are not seen: it is well for us, if they are foreseen. Between a good and a bad economist this constitutes the whole difference — the one takes account of the visible effect; the other takes account both of the effects which are seen, and also of those which it is necessary to foresee.”
The ability to “foresee” the effects of decisions made are priceless in any family, business and especially the government. Wise people have this gift, so I am guessing that government tends to discard wise people for “yes men”. But I digress …
When one hears that there are 25 confirmed cases and 0 deaths from COVID-19 in one’s state (in the USA) or province (in Canada), etc. … that does NOT mean there are only 25 cases of COVID-19 in this geographical location.
When one sees this dashboard from Johns Hopkins:
.. one has to know that “confirmed” just indicates those who were tested POSITIVE for COVID-19.
So what does that mean? Well, similar to government stats, it is only part of the story. L. Reichard White explains in this article:
In the early stages — when the number infected is still managable — there are the folks who are known to have COVID-19 and those who have come in contact with them and test positive or come down with the disease.
Barring that, however, someone worried about their symptoms would have to take themselves to a doctor or medical pro etc. who’s plugged into the reporting network.
But suppose they’re not sick enough — or worried enough — to seek a medical opinion? Or feel they can’t afford the medical system. Or are asymptomatic — that is, while infected, don’t show symptoms and so don’t know they’re infected.
So there are a lot of infected people that do not show up in this count. On the other hand, there are people included in this count that should not be since there has been historically a 47% false positive rate associated with the COVID-19 testing!
So we have to compensate for false positives and false negatives, but then there is the unknown carrier of this novel virus who may carry this 2-30 days WITHOUT symptoms!
… for the entire incubation period which is thought to be at least 14 days and possibly as long as 37 days. Also, possibly, even after recovery.
Add to this the fact that 80% of people might have ZERO symptoms when they get infected with this novel virus!
OK, so by now you are thinking, what if anything does the “official” counts do for the average person? Well, it does give one a sense of the tip of this iceberg.
It’s these [facts] folks that make it clear there are a lot more cases of COVID-19 than show up in the official data so far. In fact, some scientists estimate that as of March 1, there were as many as 10,000 unrecognized cases in the U.S. How many folks have they unknowingly infected since then?
This explains why there’s no centralized way to stop the spread of COVID-19. Which means it’s up to you to protect yourself and your family as best you can.
So vitamin D (best accomplished with sunshine), vitamin C and practical (not obsessive) hand-washing should do.
Peace out crew!
-SF1