Correlation or Causation – That is the Question

As a scientist, when you look at the data, you can’t just jump to the first thing that comes to your mind. Research is key, the data might be suspect as well as the initial conclusions.

In the case below, the SPLC (Southern Poverty Law Center) suggests the following based on their data shown here:

The diagram … graphs the number of Confederate statues erected between 1870 and 1980. Since the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) compiled the data, they suggest the memorials were most frequently put in place during periods of flagrant anti-black sentiment in the South. In short they imply that racism was the prime motive for Confederate monument-building. In truth, however, more compelling reasons are as obvious as cow patties on a snow bank to the thinking person.

Quotes above and below are from Abbeville Institute

If you have never seen cow patties on a snow bank, you have missed a major lesson in direct cause and effect. I am pretty certain, no one at the SPLC has seen this as that organization that has long been adamant in its refusal to hire blacks and pay them a lot of money. The SPLC’s new tax form lists its 11 highest paid employees: they are still all white!

“Watching the Watchdogs” stated in 2017 that ” .. the Senior Executive Staff of the SPLC is all white, just as it has been every single year since the company opened for business in 1971… “.. but I digress.

So the SPLC has some major errors when it comes to their research:

The SPLC implies that the first wave was due to “lynchings, ‘Lost Cause Mythology,’ and  a resurgent KKK.” Facts, however, don’t support their conclusion. First, the KKK’s resurgence was in the 1920s, which was at least five-to-ten years after the first peak had already past. Moreover, the state with the most KKK members during the 1920s was Indiana, a Northern state. Second, the number of lynchings were steadily dropping during the 1900-to-1915 period. Third, “Lost Cause Mythology” was a strong influence until at least 1950 and by no means concentrated in the 1900-to-1915 period.

Oops .. busted. Pretty sure someone with an agenda can easily make a mistake .. true researchers don’t do this. Fake news #1. So what is the real news?:

Contrary to the SPLC’s imaginings three factors were the chief cause of the first surge from 1900-to-1915. First, the old soldiers were dying and survivors wanted to honor their memories. A twenty-one year old who joined the Rebel army at the start of the war was sixty years old in 1900 and seventy-five in 1915 when life expectancies were shorter than today. Second, post-war impoverished Southerners generally did not have enough money to even begin erecting memorials to fallen Confederates until the turn of the century. The region did not even recover to its level of pre-war economic activity until 1900, which was thirty-five years after the war had ended.* Third, until at least 1890 the Grand Army of the Republic (GAR) was hostile to any display of Confederate iconography. The GAR was a Union veterans organization that held considerable political power until at least 1900. By 1893, for example, they so successfully lobbied for retirement benefits that their pensions totaled nearly 40% of the federal budget.

Ouch .. obvious as cow patties on a snow bank. Too bad the ‘researchers’ at SPLC have yet to have life lessons from nature. On to peak #2:

As for the second surge between 1957 and 1965, the SPLC predictably attributes it to Southern resentment over public school integration and the 1960s civil rights movement. Nonetheless, it was more likely due to initiatives that celebrated the Civil War Centennial.

Yeah, another one that the cow patties might have helped with.

Something tells me that this organization just likes to stir the pot and spin fake news like a cow does after eating .. ah .. never mind.

 

 

1st Century Empire Turned Upside-down by Real People – Can it Happen Again?

 

You may not have heard about that. That is OK. It is hard to understand these days but back in the First Century from like the year 30 to 60 and beyond there was a grassroots groundswell in the Roman Empire where 50% of the people we slaves, started catching on to a different way to live that had all their neighbors and customers curious.

Communities were the equivalent of a market place as the market itself was the path for day-to-day survival. Into this era, a man’s everyday entrance into society in a small village brought both hope and anger.

From the religious of the came the hate as they felt threatened, the state and it’s rulers didn’t care BUT didn’t want a full on revolution either. The common people, those that frequented the bar, those that were outcasts and even those who were the front line of the Empire (tax collectors and soldiers) were in the circles of this man during his three year journey in Judea at the eastern end of the Roman Empire. These common people were given hope not just for what happens after life ends, but how one could live their life day to day in peace and with true rest knowing they were loved exponentially by an awesome father, well beyond how the best dads on earth can possibly love their kids.

A process of trust is never an overnight experience, it is usually life-long. This “love” was contagious for a generation or so until some made a program out of it, came up with rule upon rule and then linked it to the state by the time of Constantine by the year 315 or so. It was a good run but it seems the wheels keep coming off and there will always be those who love power trips who can mask their true motives.

Usually when years, decades and centuries pass, you think we as a society would have learned something. (the term “progressives” come to mind) At times I think we have regressed much more than progressed.

What follows are excerpts from Chuck Baldwin’s reflection on another trip around the sun, a birthday, his own journey as well as a reflection on today’s religion, and today’s state/empire and society in general.

I call this Truth 360, but your mileage may vary:

“.. Regarding the condition of the Church in America, it is my studied opinion that both the 501c3 tax-exempt status and State nonprofit corporation status have, in effect, castrated America’s pastors and churches to the point that most churches are spiritually impotent and irrelevant to the preservation of liberty in our country. Instead of preaching the liberating Gospel of Christ and the empowering message of Christian non-conformity, they are preaching an enslaving message of bondage to the state via their preoccupation with the misinterpretation of Romans 13…”

Bingo, Jesus knew first hand the dangers of mating religion with politics .. they will put to death the innocent and call it good.

“.. I believe abortion is legalized murder. If the blood of murdered Abel cried out to God from the ground, imagine how the blood of over 60 million innocent unborn babies is crying out to God.

I believe marriage is, by definition, only between a man and a woman. I further believe that the State has absolutely no business sanctioning or licensing marriage. All of the civil court rulings in the country cannot redefine marriage. The current civil corruption of marriage should serve notice to all pastors, churches, and Christian people to divorce their marriage ceremonies from State licensure…”

Again, the State will poison society every time in time .. it is the ultimate selfish entity, it thinks only of itself and how it can insert itself in every aspect of society as the perpetual parasite.

“.. I believe Confederate generals Robert E. Lee and Thomas J. “Stonewall” Jackson were two of the finest Christian gentlemen America has ever produced, and the current politically correct assault against their name and character—along with the incessant attacks against the monuments memorializing them—is not only shameful and reprehensible, it is an attempt by big-government fascists to further erase the Jeffersonian principle of State sovereignty from the minds and hearts of the American people...”

Fascists and Marxists always want to erase history, whereas political parties will always tell only their narrative of history packed with lies and half truths .. the victors write history books .. novels is what they are = fiction!

“.. I believe in the right of the people to keep and bear arms. I further believe this is a God-ordained duty and should not be subject to State licensure or infringement. The Second Amendment does not grant us the right to keep and bear arms; it merely protects the duty to keep and bear arms that was given to us by our Creator…”

Bingo, Jesus said in times of peril, sell your property and buy an AR (my own 21st century paraphrase of the book of Luke in the New Testament, chapter 22, verse 36 .. but read it in context and refer to Chuck Baldwin’s unpacking (no pun intended) of what really went on those moments)

“.. I believe there is a conspiracy of powerful elitists to surrender America’s independence and national sovereignty to a globalist New World Order. I believe the Council on Foreign Relations, Trilateral Commission, and Bilderbergs are especially culpable in this evil subterfuge of our liberties. I had hoped that Donald Trump would honor his word to “drain the swamp” of establishment insiders, but he hasn’t. As with every President of both major parties before him, Trump has littered his administration with CFR globalists. In fact, Trump has already appointed more CFR members and fellow travelers than Barack Obama…”

Trump is as much a swamp monster as Obama or Bush II .. a politician is a politician.

“.. I believe that the national news media purposely keeps the American people in the dark about what is really going on. I believe the media deliberately covered up the truth about 9/11, Waco, Ruby Ridge, TWA Flight 800, the Oklahoma City bombing, the Sandy Hook school shootings, the Las Vegas and Parkland school shootings, etc., ad infinitum. Heck, I believe the media covered up what really happened in Dallas, Texas, on November 22, 1963, when President John F. Kennedy was assassinated. For all intents and purposes, the national news media is little more than a propaganda ministry for the Warfare/Welfare State in Washington, D.C. ..”

BINGO! If you don’t understand about this list of events, start with Ruby Ridge or Waco .. you will then be motivated to move on to the others with your own research in your own time.

“.. I am also convinced that there is a blatant attempt underfoot to turn the United States into a police-state-style surveillance society, to which personal freedoms and liberties are being quickly and deliberately sacrificed. Passage of the USA Patriot Act, The Military Commissions Act, and the Indefinite Detention clauses of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) are examples of this flagrant betrayal of freedom. And the Democrat and Republican parties in Washington, D.C., are equally culpable in this blatant usurpation of our liberties…”

Germany 1930s is their model .. SMH .. THIS is the importance of history .. how else can you be fore-warned by the “red flags” you see. I guarantee you use this in your personal life, don’t date guys who … or girls who … RED FLAGS are essential for healthy boundaries!

“.. I opposed the preemptive invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan by G.W. Bush, the bombings of Libya, along with the current bombings and drone attacks going on in countries throughout the Middle East—including Trump’s bombing of Syria and his decision to increase the number of U.S. ground forces in foreign countries. It should be obvious to everyone that the Barack Obama administration did nothing to change the perpetual war/preemptive war doctrine introduced by George W. Bush. And it should be equally obvious that Donald Trump is continuing to escalate America’s unconstitutional wars of aggression around the world...”

Exactly!!! Who else but the world’s bully could get away with that?

“.. I am  personally convinced that ISIS, al-Nusra, etc., are contrivances of Dark (illegal) Operations of America’s CIA, British Intelligence, and Israel’s Mossad. Saudi Arabia and Turkey are also partners in this nefarious activity. I believe it was the American/British/Israeli/Saudi Arabian “war on terror” that deliberately created the massive illegal immigration invasions taking place in Europe and the United States. I’ll say it flat out: The “war on terror” is totally the creation of the Deep State in the West to keep America in a state of perpetual war and to keep the people of America in a state of perpetual fear and anger…”

Right on target Chuck! It is hard to be patient for the light bulb to go on in other people’s minds .. but if you love them .. you will hang with them.

“.. I believe the international “war on terror” is a ruse to assist the goals of the central banks to create global government. All of the talk about Iran and Syria (and even North Korea) being a threat to the world is a bunch of hysterical propaganda. And FOX News (along with many pastors and churches) is at the heart of the pro-war propaganda machine. Neocons and globalists are using the Muslim people especially as the proverbial red herring to give the American people an enemy to hate so that they will accept perpetual war abroad and police-state measures here at home…”

Yup, distraction on Muslims to limit the ability to look at Israeli role in this region ..

“.. I believe G.W. Bush and Dick Cheney should be in prison for committing international war crimes against humanity and Hillary Clinton should be in prison for selling access to the Secretary of State’s office to foreign interests and for facilitating (or maybe even directly causing) the death of America’s Ambassador to Libya, Christopher Stevens. I believe politicians such as Lindsey Graham, John McCain, Chuck Schumer, and Nancy Pelosi are enemies of freedom…”

True .. but a corrupt justice system will NEVER indite these criminals because for each of those convictions would ripple to thousands more touching 98% of government officials.

“.. From a theological perspective, I believe the doctrine of the Rapture is being used by too many pastors and Christians as an excuse to not resist the many attacks against our liberties. I further believe that too many pastors and churches have become passive, timid, and politically correct, and are, therefore, “good for nothing” (Matthew 5:13) when it comes to preserving liberty. I also believe that the teaching of dispensationalism (prophetic futurism) is egregious doctrinal error that has spiritually corrupted several generations of Christians and is ultimately responsible for the rise of America’s Warfare State (contributing to the deaths of millions of people around the world) and the spiritual demise of America’s Christian heritage and culture.

And after much study, I have come to the conclusion that the current State of Israel—the one created on May 14, 1948, by the Rothschilds—has nothing to do with the Israel of the Bible. I further believe that the Zionist government in Israel illegally invaded and continues to illegally occupy the Palestinian territories of the Gaza Strip and West Bank (including the rebuilt Roman city of Aelia Capitolina, a.k.a. “Jerusalem”): acts that should be regarded as flagrant violations of international law and heinous war crimes against the Palestinian people (many of whom are Christians); acts which continue unto the present hour. I also believe that Israel should be held accountable for its attack against the USS Liberty on June 8, 1967, that resulted in the deaths of 34 American Sailors and Marines..”

Spot on Chuck .. with you on this insight as well.

Would Trump Back Iran into a Corner Like FDR Did Japan?

Presidents Trump’s strategy might be to talk tough and then “seal the deal” like he is working towards with North Korea. However, Iran has some more pull with many EU members liking Iranian oil to keep their economies afloat.

Should Trump or the next US president think about backing Iran into a corner runs the risk that FDR had with Japan. For those that never had read anything but US public school history books you might be surprise that FDR took a chapter out of Abe Lincoln’s playbook in causing Japan to “fire the first shot”.

Put yourself in Japan’s shoes by 1941 .. here are some clips from Lew Rockwell:

In 1939 the United States terminated the 1911 commercial treaty with Japan. “On July 2, 1940, Roosevelt signed the Export Control Act, authorizing the President to license or prohibit the export of essential defense materials.” Under this authority, “[o]n July 31, exports of aviation motor fuels and lubricants and No. 1 heavy melting iron and steel scrap were restricted.” Next, in a move aimed at Japan, Roosevelt slapped an embargo, effective October 16, “on all exports of scrap iron and steel to destinations other than Britain and the nations of the Western Hemisphere.” Finally, on July 26, 1941, Roosevelt “froze Japanese assets in the United States, thus bringing commercial relations between the nations to an effective end. One week later Roosevelt embargoed the export of such grades of oil as still were in commercial flow to Japan.”

Do you see this? Economic war whether they be sanctions or targeted tariffs are usually, actually, the first act of war. Trade is the best way towards peace!

FDR desired Japan to act first so FDR could count on Germany also declaring war on the USA .. which is what FDR wanted all along. The commensurate politician in the likes of Abe Lincoln, sociopaths who care less about loss of life.

Roosevelt and his subordinates knew they were putting Japan in an untenable position and that the Japanese government might well try to escape the stranglehold by going to war. Having broken the Japanese diplomatic code, the Americans knew, among many other things, what Foreign Minister Teijiro Toyoda had communicated to Ambassador Kichisaburo Nomura on July 31: “Commercial and economic relations between Japan and third countries, led by England and the United States, are gradually becoming so horribly strained that we cannot endure it much longer. Consequently, our Empire, to save its very life, must take measures to secure the raw materials of the South Seas.”

OK, so in July 1941, the US had already cracked the Japanese code .. so by December 1941:

.. leaders in Washington knew as well that Japan’s “measures” would include an attack on Pearl Harbor.[4] Yet they withheld this critical information from the commanders in Hawaii, who might have headed off the attack or prepared themselves to defend against it. That Roosevelt and his chieftains did not ring the tocsin makes perfect sense: after all, the impending attack constituted precisely what they had been seeking for a long time. As Stimson confided to his diary after a meeting of the war cabinet on November 25, “The question was how we should maneuver them [the Japanese] into firing the first shot without allowing too much danger to ourselves.”[5] After the attack, Stimson confessed that “my first feeling was of relief … that a crisis had come in a way which would unite all our people.

Sick .. unless you are a fellow sociopath. Think about this .. why were only our oldest US Navy assets at Pearl in December 1941? Again, from another Lew Rockwell article:

In 1940, Admiral J.O. Richardson, the fleet’s commander, flew to Washington to protest FDR’s decision to permanently base the fleet in Hawaii instead of its normal berthing on the U.S. West Coast. The admiral had sound reasons: Pearl Harbor was vulnerable to attack, being approachable from any direction; it could not be effectively rigged with nets and baffles to defend against torpedo planes; and in Hawaii it would be hard to supply and train crews for his undermanned vessels. Pearl Harbor also lacked adequate fuel supplies and dry docks, and keeping men far from their families would create morale problems. The argument became heated. Said Richardson: “I came away with the impression that, despite his spoken word, the President was fully determined to put the United States into the war if Great Britain could hold out until he was reelected.” Richardson was quickly relieved of command. Replacing him was Admiral Husband E. Kimmel. Kimmel also informed Roosevelt of Pearl Harbor’s deficiencies, but accepted placement there, trusting that Washington would notify him of any intelligence pointing to attack. This proved to be misplaced trust. As Washington watched Japan preparing to assault Pearl Harbor, Admiral Kimmel, as well as his Army counterpart in Hawaii, General Walter C. Short, were completely sealed off from the information pipeline.

You see how that works?

So IF you got this far you have to be asking, “Swamp Fox, so what? What does this have to do with Trump?”

Well .. rattling a nation’s economy by telling the EU that they can’t buy oil from Iran after November 2, 2018 as the region enters winter is designed to make the Iranian government go on the defensive and the people to start talking regime change (which is at the heart of the neocon agenda, these sociopaths drool over this dream of theirs). However, the US has a history in Iran as in 1953, Teddy Roosevelt’s grandson was a key player in one of the first successful CIA coups .. from Lew Rockwell one more time:

The 1953 CIA coup in Iran was named “Operation Ajax” and was engineered by a CIA agent named Kermit Roosevelt, the grandson of President Theodore Roosevelt.

Do you think the Iranians have forgotten their history LIKE the USA is doing with theirs these days? (SMH) No, they (Iranians) are not a stupid people.

My prayer is that Iran resist the urge to “do something” with a similar patience that Russia has had with US sanctions .. as war is not preferable as  some in high places (insulated from the effects and most times in aposition to benefit economically from the use of military power) might argue.

“War is the health of the state” – Randolph Bourne  So the state needs to be countered by those (a healthy society who can think critically) who can understand the unintended consequences of war. Do we have as many thinkers today as the thirteen colonies had back in 1776? From most statistics, 250,000 copies of Thomas Paine’s book “Common Sense” sold within six months to a population of 2.5 million. Ten percent of society were exposed to his words and philosophy. Do we even have 250 thousand people (out of 325 million, or less than 1%) today who would even read 49 pages of a book about liberty?

I leave you with this. Consider Thomas Jefferson’s quote below:

I abhor war and view it as the greatest scourge of mankind. The insults & injuries committed on us by both the belligerent parties, from the beginning of 1793 to this day, & still continuing, cannot now be wiped off by engaging in war with one of them. I have seen enough of one war never to wish to see another. One war, such as that of our Revolution, is enough for one life. The most successful war seldom pays for its losses. War is as much a punishment to the punisher as to the sufferer. War is an instrument entirely inefficient toward redressing wrong; and multiplies, instead of indemnifying losses. We have obtained by a peaceable appeal to justice, in four months, what we should not have obtained under seven years of war, the loss of one hundred thousand lives, an hundred millions of additional debt, many hundred millions worth of produce and property lost for want of market, or in seeking it, and that demoralization which war superinduces on the human mind. Great sacrifices of interest have certainly been made by our nation under the difficulties latterly forced upon us by transatlantic powers. But every candid and reflecting mind must agree with you, that while these were temporary and bloodless, they were calculated to avoid permanent subjection to foreign law and tribute, relinquishment of independent rights, and the burthens, the havoc, and desolations of war.

When You Fail to Design the Robot Farm Properly, Use “Plan B” .. Where is Plan B?

There is a balancing act between implementing the latest technology, and having a solid manufacturing line.

Robots can fit and work in spaces that humans can’t (and at times, shouldn’t). Having to run a production line elsewhere because plan A didn’t work is a very tough position to be in, especially when promises have been made:

.. “The existing line isn’t functional, it can’t build cars as planned and there isn’t room to get people into work stations to replace the non-functioning robots,” Warburton said in an email. “So here we have it—build cars manually in the parking lot.”

As Bloomberg notes, an April admission that he erred by putting too many robots in Tesla’s plants was a humbling moment for Musk. The chief executive officer had boasted in the past that his company would build an “alien dreadnought,” sci-fi bro code for a factory so advanced and robotic, it would be incomprehensible to primitive earthlings.

During a February earnings call, Musk told analysts that Tesla had an automated-parts conveyance system that was “probably the most sophisticated in the world.” But by the spring, it had been ripped out of the factory.

“We had this crazy, complex network of conveyor belts,” Musk told CBS This Morning in April. “And it was not working, so we got rid of that whole thing.” ..

From ZeroHedge

When Looking Out for the Long Term Health of Your Family Backfires

While it is very good to be proactive about your family, you need to know the physical and even psychological dangers in poorly planned bunkers:

“.. Many harmful gases are heavier than air, and will collect in your bunker unless you take precautions.

Even if the gas itself can’t kill you, it will push out oxygen until you have nothing left to breathe, and that will kill you. Scenarios that people commonly prep for can involve gas release, like domestic unrest, war, and more.

Imagine pulling tear gas into your bunker. Then you should consider pandemic prep, if you want to use outside air you need a filter system. Or, you could consider gas leaks that wouldn’t normally merit a SHTF situation. A simple nearby propane leak, off-gassing from nearby septic tanks, or off-gassing from the soil itself, could all kill you…”

Please do your research before you sink $5K,$10K,20K and typically $40K or more in an underground structure AND more $ in the supplies you place in it. You do not want your good intentions to becomes some unintended consequences! The health of the people you love most is at stake.

From Backdoor Survival