Presidents Trump’s strategy might be to talk tough and then “seal the deal” like he is working towards with North Korea. However, Iran has some more pull with many EU members liking Iranian oil to keep their economies afloat.
Should Trump or the next US president think about backing Iran into a corner runs the risk that FDR had with Japan. For those that never had read anything but US public school history books you might be surprise that FDR took a chapter out of Abe Lincoln’s playbook in causing Japan to “fire the first shot”.
Put yourself in Japan’s shoes by 1941 .. here are some clips from Lew Rockwell:
In 1939 the United States terminated the 1911 commercial treaty with Japan. “On July 2, 1940, Roosevelt signed the Export Control Act, authorizing the President to license or prohibit the export of essential defense materials.” Under this authority, “[o]n July 31, exports of aviation motor fuels and lubricants and No. 1 heavy melting iron and steel scrap were restricted.” Next, in a move aimed at Japan, Roosevelt slapped an embargo, effective October 16, “on all exports of scrap iron and steel to destinations other than Britain and the nations of the Western Hemisphere.” Finally, on July 26, 1941, Roosevelt “froze Japanese assets in the United States, thus bringing commercial relations between the nations to an effective end. One week later Roosevelt embargoed the export of such grades of oil as still were in commercial flow to Japan.”
Do you see this? Economic war whether they be sanctions or targeted tariffs are usually, actually, the first act of war. Trade is the best way towards peace!
FDR desired Japan to act first so FDR could count on Germany also declaring war on the USA .. which is what FDR wanted all along. The commensurate politician in the likes of Abe Lincoln, sociopaths who care less about loss of life.
Roosevelt and his subordinates knew they were putting Japan in an untenable position and that the Japanese government might well try to escape the stranglehold by going to war. Having broken the Japanese diplomatic code, the Americans knew, among many other things, what Foreign Minister Teijiro Toyoda had communicated to Ambassador Kichisaburo Nomura on July 31: “Commercial and economic relations between Japan and third countries, led by England and the United States, are gradually becoming so horribly strained that we cannot endure it much longer. Consequently, our Empire, to save its very life, must take measures to secure the raw materials of the South Seas.”
OK, so in July 1941, the US had already cracked the Japanese code .. so by December 1941:
.. leaders in Washington knew as well that Japan’s “measures” would include an attack on Pearl Harbor.[4] Yet they withheld this critical information from the commanders in Hawaii, who might have headed off the attack or prepared themselves to defend against it. That Roosevelt and his chieftains did not ring the tocsin makes perfect sense: after all, the impending attack constituted precisely what they had been seeking for a long time. As Stimson confided to his diary after a meeting of the war cabinet on November 25, “The question was how we should maneuver them [the Japanese] into firing the first shot without allowing too much danger to ourselves.”[5] After the attack, Stimson confessed that “my first feeling was of relief … that a crisis had come in a way which would unite all our people.
Sick .. unless you are a fellow sociopath. Think about this .. why were only our oldest US Navy assets at Pearl in December 1941? Again, from another Lew Rockwell article:
In 1940, Admiral J.O. Richardson, the fleet’s commander, flew to Washington to protest FDR’s decision to permanently base the fleet in Hawaii instead of its normal berthing on the U.S. West Coast. The admiral had sound reasons: Pearl Harbor was vulnerable to attack, being approachable from any direction; it could not be effectively rigged with nets and baffles to defend against torpedo planes; and in Hawaii it would be hard to supply and train crews for his undermanned vessels. Pearl Harbor also lacked adequate fuel supplies and dry docks, and keeping men far from their families would create morale problems. The argument became heated. Said Richardson: “I came away with the impression that, despite his spoken word, the President was fully determined to put the United States into the war if Great Britain could hold out until he was reelected.” Richardson was quickly relieved of command. Replacing him was Admiral Husband E. Kimmel. Kimmel also informed Roosevelt of Pearl Harbor’s deficiencies, but accepted placement there, trusting that Washington would notify him of any intelligence pointing to attack. This proved to be misplaced trust. As Washington watched Japan preparing to assault Pearl Harbor, Admiral Kimmel, as well as his Army counterpart in Hawaii, General Walter C. Short, were completely sealed off from the information pipeline.
You see how that works?
So IF you got this far you have to be asking, “Swamp Fox, so what? What does this have to do with Trump?”
Well .. rattling a nation’s economy by telling the EU that they can’t buy oil from Iran after November 2, 2018 as the region enters winter is designed to make the Iranian government go on the defensive and the people to start talking regime change (which is at the heart of the neocon agenda, these sociopaths drool over this dream of theirs). However, the US has a history in Iran as in 1953, Teddy Roosevelt’s grandson was a key player in one of the first successful CIA coups .. from Lew Rockwell one more time:
The 1953 CIA coup in Iran was named “Operation Ajax” and was engineered by a CIA agent named Kermit Roosevelt, the grandson of President Theodore Roosevelt.
Do you think the Iranians have forgotten their history LIKE the USA is doing with theirs these days? (SMH) No, they (Iranians) are not a stupid people.
My prayer is that Iran resist the urge to “do something” with a similar patience that Russia has had with US sanctions .. as war is not preferable as some in high places (insulated from the effects and most times in aposition to benefit economically from the use of military power) might argue.
“War is the health of the state” – Randolph Bourne So the state needs to be countered by those (a healthy society who can think critically) who can understand the unintended consequences of war. Do we have as many thinkers today as the thirteen colonies had back in 1776? From most statistics, 250,000 copies of Thomas Paine’s book “Common Sense” sold within six months to a population of 2.5 million. Ten percent of society were exposed to his words and philosophy. Do we even have 250 thousand people (out of 325 million, or less than 1%) today who would even read 49 pages of a book about liberty?
I leave you with this. Consider Thomas Jefferson’s quote below:
I abhor war and view it as the greatest scourge of mankind. The insults & injuries committed on us by both the belligerent parties, from the beginning of 1793 to this day, & still continuing, cannot now be wiped off by engaging in war with one of them. I have seen enough of one war never to wish to see another. One war, such as that of our Revolution, is enough for one life. The most successful war seldom pays for its losses. War is as much a punishment to the punisher as to the sufferer. War is an instrument entirely inefficient toward redressing wrong; and multiplies, instead of indemnifying losses. We have obtained by a peaceable appeal to justice, in four months, what we should not have obtained under seven years of war, the loss of one hundred thousand lives, an hundred millions of additional debt, many hundred millions worth of produce and property lost for want of market, or in seeking it, and that demoralization which war superinduces on the human mind. Great sacrifices of interest have certainly been made by our nation under the difficulties latterly forced upon us by transatlantic powers. But every candid and reflecting mind must agree with you, that while these were temporary and bloodless, they were calculated to avoid permanent subjection to foreign law and tribute, relinquishment of independent rights, and the burthens, the havoc, and desolations of war.