Ever since enacting our existing Constitution in 1787/1788, the US has had issues controlling itself. To pay down the war debt, instead of staying the course with the states deciding on their payback schedule, the general government jumped in for the power grab. It has been rough sledding every since.
So here we are in 2019, while US propaganda spins the latest twists of the expanding trade war with China, one of my favorite bloggers, Moon of Alabama, does a great job of setting the context and teasing the truth out of this current situation.
I can only think that Trump sees his time as short even if it is two terms and he sees this area of US policy as the only place he can “play” with the big boys, and perform his legacy business strength, the “Art of the Deal“.
Other areas like foreign policy are in the hands of the neocons and the domestic games hold little real interest to him (except it gives him plenty of material to Tweet about).
Moon of Alabama is balanced enough to say:
Some aspects of China’s trade behavior can and should be criticized. But overall China sticks to the rules of the game, while the U.S. is now breaking these.
It was not China that moved U.S. factories to its country. U.S. managers did that because the U.S. economic system is based on greed and not on the welfare of its citizens.
There are much better ways to get China to change its trade behavior than by bullying and ever increasing tariffs and sanctions.
Bullies don’t play by the rules, from US/Israel/French nuclear development that the US vetoes the UN on WHILE picking on Iran which has dotted the “I” s and crossed all the “T” s .. to the way the US waged war on itself especially in 1864/1865 with the total war mantra, killing civilians, burning homes, stealing silverware, raping the wives and slave women and wrecking havoc over a large portion of the South, bullies never play fair.
Non-bullies almost have to until the bully is significantly weakened, but having over 5000+ nukes with multiple warheads keeps the US in “business”.
Back to the China tariff “strategy”:
The U.S. started a trade war with China by suddenly putting up high tariffs on Chinese products. China countered with tariffs on U.S. products, but was ready to negotiate a fair deal. The negotiations about an agreement were held in English in the United States. The U.S. provided a written draft.
When that draft reached China and was translated to Chinese the relevant party and government institutions were aghast. The U.S. demanded that China changes several of its domestics laws. It essentially demanded a complete change of China’s trade policies and, most infuriating, was unwilling to go back to the old tariff rates, even if China would comply. It wasn’t Xi who rejected the uneven deal, it was the whole Chinese government.
You see, historically, the US likes to portray an “evil bogeyman” in foreign policy struggles like it likes to paint the “lone gunman” in domestic shootings:
U.S. propaganda is always pointing to one person that solely cases everything and therefore deserves all the hate. It once was Saddam, Saddam , Saddam. Then Ghadaffi, Ghadaffi, Ghadaffi, Assad, Assad, Assad, Putin, Putin, Putin. Now it is Xi, Xi, Xi.
So now what? The “negotiations” that supposedly Trump is so good at (like 4D chess moves, etc) seems to have no real pattern. Maybe that is his genius, random chaos?
As Ambassador Chas Freeman lays out at length:
“There is no longer an orderly policy process in Washington to coordinate, moderate, or control policy formulation or implementation. Instead, a populist president has effectively declared open season on China.”
So what is the end game here? Does he want this to become a war that he can blame the neocons on (since they are itching for another conflict to insure the Military-Industrial Complex is well “fed” with government revenue, up to $1.2T annually IF you count the ten different accounts that make up the “military” budget).
China will response in kind and asymmetrically. It now restarts to buy oil from Iran. Ambassador Freeman sees no way how the U.S. could win the game.
China has long prepared for this conflict. Consider Trump’s recent move against the Chinese manufacturer Huawei:
The White House issued an executive order Wednesday apparently aimed at banning Huawei’s equipment from U.S. telecom networks and information infrastructure. It then announced a more potent and immediate sanction that subjects the Chinese company to strict export controls.
The order took effect Thursday and requires U.S. government approval for all purchases of U.S. microchips, software and other components globally by Huawei and 68 affiliated businesses. Huawei says that amounted to $11 billion in goods last year.
So basically, US chip manufacturers are feeling the same way as soybean farmers .. what did Trump do to our market? Consumers may never know the deal they might have had with solar panels.
Maybe Trump has had enough of the presidency and wants to “kick the can” to the next president to deal with, landmines like rising Walmart prices WILL hit his core base, if they can connect the dots.
Things are going to get even more interesting!
-SF1