Over and over I have seen in my brief (60 trips around the sun) life when emotional and sometimes irrational fear grips leaders, a people group or even a spouse. Yes, from macro to micro, relationships of nations, to regions, to states, to communities and even to marriages there is fear of the future.
Some of this fear is good, some of it is bad. The fact the fear does dominate our thinking as humans is that we are unsure about tomorrow. That is a healthy fear, that we do not have everything in our control. The bad fear is when it gets blown out of proportion and we make decisions on the worst possible scenario. This is the type of fear (economic and political) that I see in this article from Zero Hedge called: “An Unparalleled Economic & Political Crisis”: Brexit Optimism Collapses As Ministers Fear “Historic Catastrophe” on the evaporating Brexit optimism:
“I have near zero optimism because I think it is going to be very messy,” warned one UK minister, speaking to Bloomberg on condition of anonymity. The prospects of getting an agreement are slim, the minister said. “If we crash out without a deal, it’s going to be a historic catastrophe.”
When this level of fear grips anyone, the likelihood of a peaceful and logical solution is increasingly unlikely. It takes two parties to agree on a union, and two parties to behave well as one or both desire to dissolve the union.
I do believe, that many times it is the abused partner that can have the most balanced approach to the process of dissolution in that they have seen this coming for a long time and are ready to state their terms for the exit.
Reflecting back in history, one has to say that the path communist USSR took to split into all those republic peacefully says volumes about the abuse that happened during the rigid communist era. Not only in the political realm, but also in terms of religion (communists were bent on atheism) and society in general.
Reflecting back in history, one has to say the path the republic USA took to split into two republics shows the opposite path, whereas the southern seven states (the abused) desired to exit peacefully, the balance of the states, especially the northern and western (Midwest), feared for the future that awaited them without those seven states. Those regions feared economic uncertainties and the government feared the loss of revenue first and foremost. Between the month where Lincoln was inaugurated on March 4, 1861 toward April, even the newspapers shifted from the assumption that those seven states would exit soon to that of economic panic. In their minds, without the “customers” in those states AND the fact that they wanted to be a free-trade zone with minimum tariffs scared the heck out of people and politicians (especially the new party called Republicans that just took control of the US government and doubled the tariff as they did).
The Brexit effort is similar as once the people’s will was displayed, the political fear escalated which sets the stage for a potentially bad deal no matter what path is taken. The nation of England had wedded itself into the EU to the degree that separation will cause pain, however, the long term future is much brighter. One can only hope that common sense and level heads prevail, that real leadership emerges and leads this people towards a better future. Who knows, may this success could be a model for the USA to try this secession/exit thing one more time, and maybe instead of splitting in two (which is long overdue), possibly splitting into six nations might be optimal as a first step. While it still depends on statism, my hope is that more freedom may emerge as not all these entities remain on the Marxist track the whole of the US is currently on.
SF1