Tag: treaties

When the Underdog Surprises the Main Dog (Russia & US Empire)

Via the SOUTH Pole (“Remember the French Maginot Line?”) Upper Right: Florida

The seeds of this day has been coming for 25 years, ever since the US promised Russia, in the vacuum left when the USSR peacefully split into republics, that US/NATO expansion into the vacuum would not happen.

Two things happened in the spring of 2018 that has made clear the ramifications of this move.

  • The revelations that the US under the Clinton Administration outright lied to Russia’s leader Boris Yeltsin in the period between 1991 and 1994
  • The revelations that Russia under Vladimir Putin unveiled in his 01MAR2018 address that let the world know that not just on one technological front, but on a half a dozen, that Russia has indeed check-mated the US Empire in military strategy with only 10% of the financial resources that the US had during these same two decades.

There is so much that has happened that it is essential to break this down into several posts as outlined below:

  • This post that will capture the essence of the promises made in the 1990s when the USSR unilaterally offered to end the Cold War competition and was led to believe that NATO expansion, the very item that worried the Russians the most, would not be a thing and an overview of the technological advances that the Russian military surprise the US military with this spring
  • Subsequent posts outlining these technological advances that has US military strategists wondering is if several US multi-billion dollar projects are already outdated/obsolete by the following Russian programs: RS-28 Sarmat heavy Intercontinental Ballistic Missile, Kinzhal Hypersonic Missile, Avangard Hypersonic Glide Vehicle, Burevestnik nuclear-powered precision-guided cruise missile,  Poseidon unmanned fast-moving underwater nuclear drone and an anti-missile Combat Laser –Peresvet.

I know that Americans have difficulty understanding the impact of history on current events, but those nations that have been duped by American foreign policy and treaties never forget. The USSR, a communist bastion of proud men and women, basically saw the writing on the wall that their political philosophy was not sustainable. Finances showed them in 1989 that their trajectory was unsustainable and as such, refused to lie to their peoples (many different people groups under the USSR umbrella) any longer.

Boris Yeltsin was critical to have in place at this point in time to humbly allow the transition from a communistic regime that prided itself in being a super power towards an admission that decentralized republics would best serve the people in the long term. This allowed local peoples to be more intimately involved in their destiny. Sure there was tons of corruption as the communist leadership released its grip on industry and the military let alone all the financial intricacies involved in “spin-down” of the USSR. Oligarchs are still an issue the Putin faces decades later.

One recent article that highlights what has been learned about this time of transition is from the Lew Rockwell site and is quoted below:

The new documents, compiled by the National Security Archive from US and Russian government files, show that US officials gave misguiding statements to Russian President Boris Yeltsin about plans for the expansion of NATO. They told Yeltsin that the Partnership for Peace — a NATO program to encourage military co-operation between NATO members and other Euro-Atlantic and ex-Soviet states — was an alternative to expanding NATO. At the same time they were planning to expand NATO membership while dismissing Russian officials’ concerns about being excluded from future Europe-wide security partnerships.

How many times does THIS have to happen for people all around the world to understand the rotten character of the US Empire. From treaties with the American Indians to the 21st century, it seems that the US can never be trusted. Lately, with Bin Laden (freedom fighter), Saddam Hussein (Iraq), and Qaddafi (Libya) leaders each being supported by US/CIA for years until they out-lived their usefulness and we turned on, no wonder Iran, North Korea and now China and Russia have their doubts about the “word” of the US Empire. This is exactly how bullies act.

The US dispatched vice President Gore to try to smooth things over, but when Clinton and Yeltsin met in Moscow in May 1995, Yeltsin was still concerned with the American push for NATO expansion. A record of the meeting shows that Yeltsin objected:

“I see nothing but humiliation for Russia if you proceed… Why do you want to do this? We need a new structure for Pan-European security, not old ones! But for me to agree to the borders of NATO expanding towards those of Russia — that would constitute a betrayal on my part of the Russian people.”

So for more than four years at this point, Yeltsin objects to how the US leaders were two-faced in their dealings with the Soviets and now with the new republics.

Clinton assured Yeltsin once more that any expansion would be ‘gradual, steady, measured’ and that ‘I won’t support any change that undermines Russia’s security or redivides Europe’. Ultimately the two leaders agreed that any NATO expansion would be deferred until after the 1996 Presidential elections in both of their respective countries.

By this time the damage was done, see here the effects:

Do you still believe anything that the Clintons/Bushes/US Government says?

It is obvious, especially since 2000 that the people and leadership in Russia have not stood still in waiting on the promises of the US government. Russia has emerged as an underdog in several ways and recently have received a badge of honor in being targeted with multiple sanctions for lies the US government is using to justify its actions. Whether it is election meddling (which the US government is a pro at, over 80 times since WWII) or being involved in various false flags that have the CIA fingerprints, the bully does not want its motives exposed. Probably the biggest thing Russia has done is reveal to what degree the US and other NATO powers were involved in the “color revolution” in Ukraine as well as support of ISIS in Syria. The US is accustomed to having other countries cover for them, and tipping off the world to the real US mode of operations (MOs) is something the US exceptionalism band (Republicans and Democrats) desires revenge on.

While the US/NATO has been manipulating Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Pakistan as well as countries close to the Russian border, the Russians have been quietly embarking on a strategic path toward learning from the fall of an over extended USSR and towards technological transformation to allow their “Tier 2” status not to render themselves defenseless from pressures from the outside. THIS is what defense is all about and this translates into a nationalistic pride that has Russians being solidly behind the limited external missions that Russia chooses to be involved with (i.e. Syria).

The timing of the revelations that have the US Empire back-pedaling and attempting to save face are stark and reveal once more that the US intelligence community is more involved in politics than in intelligence. Their inability to communicate what they knew about 9/11 must have clued the Russians in toward exploiting this intelligence gap! Just as the US Empire is ratcheting up sanctions and trade wars while also almost openly supporting ISIS in Syria, Russia was able to help the thinking people in this world that Russia is not weak, but that it is willing, in a controlled and strategic way to offer an alternative to the US hegemony. Russia now has China, Iran and an increasingly number of NATO nations that are willing to continue trade, and this allows Russia to be a healthy competitor to both the US military, but also to the US morals displayed yet again globally.

Each of these six technological achievements (seen in this great article **NOTE** with incorrect link naming) alone could have been big news, but that Russia dropped this bomb this spring is no accident. In subsequent posts I hope to share the significance of each one of these technological milestones as well as possible fallout in the US space for military expertise.

Apparently, the Russian strategists in the 2000s firmly believed the following:

SpinDown: How Russia Does It and How the US Empire Does It

Russian Military Police – Observation Post in Syria

The process of spinning down a conflict is a lot harder than spinning it up. It seems that after years of destabilizing various areas of the world, the US has no patience for the spin-down process.

Notice how Russia patiently waited for Syria’s request for assistance, and once expectations were matched (as peers would do), the process would evolve in a strategy that maximizes stability throughout the spin-down process. This is basic project management.

Russia was aware that Syria was battling terrorism in their country starting in 2011 and was supporting Syria behind the scenes (while the US/Israel/Saudi Arabia/UK was supporting ISIS behind the scenes) for FOUR years until Assad requested direct Russian military assistance in 2015. Here we are three years later and without carpet bombing or napalm, Syria with Russia’s and Iran’s assistance have throttled back the terror impact inside Syria methodically. This is a five year plan that differs from the US approach in that Russia does not intend to stay past its welcome. This is what friends do, we don’t perpetually parent our friends for 20, 40 or 60 years or more!

The US was heavily involved in spinning up the North Korean conflict in 1950 through 1953 when a cease-fire was agreed on. The US has done nothing but exploit the situation with the North Koreans over the past 65 years. Through this process, South Korea has totally depended on the US military like welfare recipients depend on Uncle Sam, they might be grateful but they will never respect the entity/empire. All it takes is for the gravy train to end and the relationship goes south in a hurry. Does the same hold true in Japan, Germany, and Taiwan? You bet it does. It seems that the US Empire needs a strong military at all costs, because a bully doesn’t have any friends if he doesn’t have any fists! We have long ago overstayed our welcome as we are that enabler parent that will not let the kid grow up!

I was hopeful that President Trump, having accomplished a visit to North Korea in the spring of 2018 might have broken out of the dysfunctional funk that has plagued US negotiations and treaty performance (the American Indians know real well how that goes). Whether it is Trump’s inability at guiding his staff to build on his goodwill OR it is just part of the “art of negotiations”, Moon of Alabama gets to the core of the issue in this article:

Now Pompeo came to Pyongyang and asked for details about North Korea’s nuclear program and how it plans to abandon it. As far as we know he did not talk about point 1, the “establishment of new US-DPRK relations” which would include the opening of embassies and economic engagement. He did not talk about point 2, “a lasting and stable peace regime” i.e. a peace treaty. He did not talk about 3a, the “security guarantees to the DPRK”. The only item he talked about was 3b, the last item on the list.

Really? Is this the best that Team Trump can offer? I have to give it to North Korea for their part in some truth-telling to the US bully empire:

As for the issue of announcing the declaration of the end of war at an early date, it is the first process of defusing tension and establishing a lasting peace regime on the Korean peninsula, and at the same time, it constitutes a first factor in creating trust between the DPRK and the U.S. This issue was also stipulated in Panmunjom Declaration as a historical task to terminate the war status on the Korean peninsula which continues for nearly 70 years. President Trump, too, was more enthusiastic about this issue at the DPRK-U.S. summit talks.

That is mature, that is the ability to be critical of the staff that was supposed to follow through on his boss’ success while still giving the boss credit for what he started to accomplish.

Valuable agreement was reached in such a short time at the Singapore summit talks first ever in the history of the DPRK-U.S. relations. This is attributable to the fact that President Trump himself said he would move towards resolving the DPRK-U.S. relations and the issue of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula in a new way.
If both sides at the working level reneged on the new way agreed at the summit and returned to the old way, the epoch-making Singapore summit would be meaningless … We still cherish our good faith in President Trump.

The U.S. should make a serious consideration of whether the toleration of the headwind against the wills of the two top leaders would meet the aspirations and expectations of the world people as well as the interests of its country.

Wow. Has the US ever responded this way? The Golden Rule as Ron Paul would say, would go a long ways in sustaining peaceful and respectable relationships with other countries. I think there is more money to be made in war however:

Beyond this July 2018 dialog, it seems that the US Media has joined in following in the footsteps that the Trump administration left off, further criticizing of the North Koreans. I honestly think they believe that they don’t have a chance in getting their war in Syria liked they wanted and since much of the US naval fleet is in the Western Pacific anyway, why not just rattle some cages on that side of the world for a while. Sick!

Moon of Alabama in this recent article shares how the US Media / US Government Propaganda Machine is selling its fake news:

A Washington Post editorial today laments that the Singapore negotiations have given North Korea too much. It urges Trump further into the blind alley he already finds himself in:

The administration’s best hope of rescuing the situation is to return to talking with North Korea about an equitable tradeoff. To start the process of denuclearization, U.S. officials say the Kim regime must provide a complete inventory of its assets — warheads, production facilities and other nuclear infrastructure — and agree to inspections to verify it. Previous negotiations have broken down because of Pyongyang’s refusal to take this step, so a full disclosure would provide the first clear signal that Mr. Kim was serious about denuclearization. That, along with a freeze in the production of missiles and fissile materials, could justify U.S. participation in the end-of-conflict declaration the two Koreas are seeking.

This is exactly what Trump and his water carrier Pompeo are doing. They demand that North Korea bows to whatever the U.S. wishes without assuring it of a significant quid pro quo. If the U.S. can not even stick to simple agreements, like the Singapore Statement, why should North Korea believe any verbal assurance of vague steps the U.S. might take after it disarms?

The only way out of this is for the U.S. to offer and sign a peace treaty that finally brings the Korea War to an official end. There is only one alternatives to that. A return U.S. strategic maneuvers, which Defense Secretary Mattis just now announced, followed up by North Korea with new nuclear and missile tests, possibly combined in a launch towards Guam.

This is a bi-polar dysfunctional American empire that is “high” on itself, the old “American Exceptionalism” disease. Our kids and grand-kids will not benefit from this type of behavior in future generations.

If we even think about some of the more US’s recent interventions (Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, the attempt in Syria and elsewhere to lesser degrees), one has to wonder how long can this go on? Is this dysfunctional empire going to be able to “spin-down” any country where it is better off for the process of being led to “democracy”?

Unlike Russia, it seems that the US planning is only one step deep, intervene in a big way, and then let the chips fall where they may, so that in the destabilized environment Uncle Sam’s services will be needed for generations. Job security.

Uncle Sam needs an “intervention”!

-SF1