Political + Business Monopolies = Mismanagement Squared: California & PG&E Blackout

Fuel treatments demonstrably protect the tracts on which they are performed. This image shows how treatment protected the previously thinned acres when the Northern California Goat Fire of 2000 swept through. In addition to protecting the treated acres themselves, it is believed that strategically located thinnings can stall the overall spread of wildfires, thus protecting acres beyond those treated.

What is extremely sad is the fact that it usually takes years to see the dysfunction, many time unseen at first, that comes from decisions made by those that have little to no skin in the game. In this case, political decisions in the 1990s, some good intentions, could result in unintended consequences in 2018 and beyond. Business joined at the hip with government is a recipe for disaster. Pure Crap-italism brought California this below instead!

In the recent ‘Watts Up With That’ article on the intentional PG&E blackout for a million or more California residents away from the metro areas to prevent wild fires, Anthony Watts rightly lays blame where it needs to be laid:

To better understand how we came to this forced blackout, it is useful to look to the past. When the gold rush led to modern California, early photographers chronicled the landscape .. the wildlife biologist depicted a California countryside of grassland with isolated stands of pines and oaks. The native Americans in the region frequently used fire to shape the landscape to increase the food available for them, as not a lot of sustenance grows on a dense forest floor.

Watts outlines the natural and then outlines what the last 150 years has brought California:

But with the arrival of hundreds of thousands of Americans came a thriving economy and the order of government. Trees were useful and valuable, and therefore harvested. Fire was a threat to towns and cities, and thus, suppressed.

For decades, up until the 1970s, California would harvest and replant about as much wood as could be grown through an abundance of sunshine, snow, and rain. But in the 1990s, concern over logging’s effect on the spotted owl (largely misplaced, as time would tell) led to a massive slowdown in the timber harvest, especially on the federal lands that make up about 60 percent of California’s forests.

With a decline in the harvest came a decline in the allied efforts to clear brush, build and maintain access roads and firebreaks. This led inexorably to a decades’ long build-up in the fuel load. Federal funds set aside for increasingly unpopular forest management efforts were instead shifted to fire-suppression expenses.

It must be noted, that the usual suspects have not been mentioned. This is because it has been the “answer” for every question since “experts” predicted Global Cooling in the 1970s and Global Warming in the 1990s who now fly the flag Climate Change as their mantra. Fact is, California is not hotter and drier due to man-made environmental impact, but annual precipitation totals over the past 100 years show no statistically meaningful trend.

In a stroke of some innovative thinking, there was a 2006 report by the Western Governors Association that promoted the use of technological advances to adjust for the overreaction to environmental concerns. The report noted that:

“over time the fire-prone forests that were not thinned, burn in uncharacteristically destructive wildfires… …In the long term, leaving forests overgrown and prone to unnaturally destructive wildfires means there will be significantly less biomass on the ground, and more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.”

Their solution was to construct Biomass facilities which can provide power in the kilowatt range to farms and light industry or in the multi-megawatt
range to communities, campuses and industrial complexes. These qualities alone make biomass the most diverse, complex and strategic renewable resource in the region.

Of course, innovative thinking rarely impacts those who are content with the status quo, and so now over a decade later, when the rubber meets the road, and crisis emerges, politicians look to shift the blame:

Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, supports the blackout as a preventive measure, noting that the planned power cut “shows that PG&E finally woke up to their responsibility to keep people safe.”

Ironically, it was former Gov. Jerry Brown that changed his tune in recent years as it became apparent that environmental protection turned out to be a worse Rx for the environment (kind of like the typical political wars where their prescription is worse than the “disease”, like The War on Drugs, The War on Poverty, The War on Terror, etc):

California politicians, late to realize the true nature of the wildfire danger, have finally started to play catch-up. Last year, outgoing four-term Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown reversed his longtime reluctance to active forest management when he signed two bills into law, both of which passed on the last day of the legislative session in what was to become California’s deadliest wildfire year.

SB 901 allocated $190 million a year to use prescribed burns to reduce the fuel load while improving forest health, while SB 1260 made three important policy changes to streamline the ability to conduct prescribed and controlled burns; remove air quality impediments to preventive burns; and prevent environmental quality lawsuits from slowing or stopping needed burns.

So it looks like big business married to big government has once again brought about a worse scenario than if they had been kept out of the monopolization of power (no pun intended) for those in Northern California that have escaped the urban areas. Just think what smaller utilities companies in competition along with county governments could have done for those in these areas verses what bureaucrats did in Sacramento! Instead, look at what politicians have done:

In all likelihood, these measures will prove to be too little, too late for rural Californians, many of whom flocked to build along what is known as the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) where land was cheaper and housing costs far less than in California’s dense and heavily regulated urban centers.

The environmentalists who hold sway over much of the California political class chafe at these homes along the edge of the forest and chaparral, calling for development restrictions and special fire taxes to discourage low-cost housing in rural areas and around the suburban periphery.

And now, as the result of forest mismanagement by both the federal government and California, many homeowners living out in the WUI can no longer obtain fire insurance. No fire insurance, no mortgage. No mortgage, no house. Today, it would also appear, no electricity as well.

Like many other states, you have the urban areas that hold most of the decision-making power and then you have the rural areas that are at the mercy of big-money men hundreds of miles away.

It was not meant to be this way, for in my sequel to this post, I will explain that one of the two versions of America saw things very differently. The root of where we (as well as the rural Californians) are today is from decisions made in the late 1700s right on up to the 1860s and beyond. Once again, democracy renders a nation hostage to the majority and powerful and marginalizes those who live and act differently. Democracy is the road one takes when on the way to Socialism, Marxism and Communism.

Stay tuned.

-SF1

Global Warming Causing Hurricanes to Go Further North Now … or Not?

Called after the fact, the Long Island Express, this hurricane 80 years ago  today did a number on the unsuspecting fisherman and inhabitants of New England.

Without all the technology we have today, this hurricane emerged “out of the blue” literally and ravaged the region:

FILE – This September 1938 photo shows a damaged ferry boat sitting in shallow water in Providence, R.I., following the deadly hurricane of 1938 that hit the Northeast. The Great New England Hurricane of 1938 hit the New England Coast 75-years ago Sept. 21.(AP Photo/Boston Public Library, Leslie Jones/FILE)

Not only did this CAT3 hurricane make it to New England feeding on the warm Gulf Stream waters on the way in September (without “Global Warming”), there were people in the Weather Bureau that forecast this BUT was not allowed to share this possibility as shown in this article from The Burning Platform. Come to find out, government bureaucracy stunk back then as well:

Charlie Pierce, a junior forecaster in the U.S. Weather Bureau, was sure that the hurricane was heading for the Northeast, but the chief forecaster overruled him. It had been well over a century since New England had been hit by a substantial hurricane, and few believed it could happen again. Hurricanes rarely persist after encountering the cold waters of the North Atlantic. However, this hurricane was moving north at an unusually rapid pace–more than 60 mph–and was following a track over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream.

The news of the day was more focused on the tensions in Europe in the pre-WWII era, and so this major hurricane stayed out of the news until September 21st:

With Europe on the brink of war over the worsening Sudetenland crisis, little media attention was given to the powerful hurricane at sea. There was no advanced meteorological technology, such as radar, radio buoys, or satellite imagery, to warn of the hurricane’s approach. By the time the U.S. Weather Bureau learned that the Category 3 storm was on a collision course with Long Island on the afternoon of September 21, it was too late for a warning.

Between 2:30pm and 11pm that night, the Long Island Express made its impression on New England:

In Milton, south of Boston, the Blue Hill Observatory recorded one of the highest wind gusts in history, an astounding 186 mph. Boston was hit hard, and “Old Ironsides”–the historic ship U.S.S. Constitution–was torn from its moorings in Boston Navy Yard and suffered slight damage. Hundreds of other ships were not so lucky.

The hurricane lost intensity as it passed over northern New England, but by the time the storm reached Canada around 11 p.m. it was still powerful enough to cause widespread damage. The Great New England Hurricane finally dissipated over Canada that night.

So what to do with this? For one, do your own research when the “news” says anything. For two, know your history so you can counter the prevailing voices that insist that they are the experts for all current events. For three, don’t just accept the “news”, for your sake, your friends’ sake or for your kid’s sake .. they all need to know the truth, be that beacon of light.

Hurricane Florence: Why Did the Experts Get it All Wrong?

I really do think there is a lot of “group-think”, not unlike what happened with 9/11, going on. Multiple departments of the government, and entities tied closely with the government (including major media) do their best to predict this “super-storm” in the middle of “global-warming” that had everyone implying the overheated oceans would let the CAT4 hurricane in North Caroline.

The Global Warming community has been at it for some time now, even saying to President Bush that this threat was worse than “terrorism” according to this The Burning Platform article:

A secret report by the US defense chiefs warned President Bush that Global Warming was such a great threat that it would destroy the United States and major European cities. They told the President that cities would sink beneath rising seas and Britain would be plunged into a “Siberian” climate by 2020. They warned that mega-droughts, famine, and widespread rioting will erupt across the world. The document warned that the planet would fall into anarchy and the nuclear threat would rise as countries then sought to defend themselves in the face of declining food, water, and energy supplies.

OK then. Fast forward a few decades and you now have a whole generation of climate specialists trying to predict the path and the strength of this hurricane, and they blew it! Dr. Tim Ball in this article explains:

With Florence, they got almost everything wrong. The computer model predictions of the path and strength were wrong even in such a short distance and in 48 hours; a period for which they claim a high level of accuracy. They claimed the hurricane path was very unusual because it was further north than usual. No, it wasn’t. I was in Bermuda in the early 1960s when we were forced to evacuate because of a hurricane moving in.

OK, so they got some history wrong, but wait, there is more!

… the NOAA forecast ignored … major mechanisms. One was the presence of colder water as Florence moved north. The fuel source for a hurricane is the latent heat of evaporation carried up and released as sensible heat after condensation. Estimates are that a moderate hurricane, like Florence, evaporates 2 billion gallons of water an hour. This is why, when the system moves over land it dissipates very quickly. Another was the three-dimensional dynamics of a system that stretches from the surface to the Tropopause. That very distinct boundary is twice as high over the Equator (approximate average, 18 km) as it is over the Poles (approximate average, 8 km). This means the system gets flattened out as it moves north, which explains why Florence became much wider. As it widens the wind speed diminishes … Very simply, the speed of rotation is determined by the radius of the mass from the axis of rotation. The combination of the energy in the system and the reduced speed of rotation served to alter the path the system takes. The Coriolis Effect is changed, which is partly why they got the direction wrong in such a short distance.

Yes, again there is MORE!

Unseen in all this, is the role insurance companies played in this history of this exploitation.

Say it isn’t so .. but wait .. never mind, you get the picture:

… with the misinformation and unadulterated exploitation of hurricane Florence by alarmists and the media. Attempts to present the hurricane as abnormal and link it to climate change were naked and almost desperate. It reached a nadir when the Washington Post wrote,

Yet when it comes to extreme weather, Mr. Trump is complicit. He plays down humans’ role in increasing the risks, and he continues to dismantle efforts to address those risks. It is hard to attribute any single weather event to climate change. But there is no reasonable doubt that humans are priming the Earth’s systems to produce disasters.

Oh no!

OK, let’s back up here. On Wednesday the 12th, the “experts” had Florence at a CAT4 and entering SC/NC with that strength, and other reports indicated that there were 80 foot waves in the open ocean with this global warming produced super-storm. However, things started unraveling pretty quickly:

By Wednesday evening they already downgraded Florence from a Category 4 to a Category 2, and it came ashore barely as a Category 1. In fact, it was amusing to see how long they continued to report it with wind speeds of 75 mph because if it was 74 mph, it was no longer a hurricane. NOAA control the wind speed determinations with their estimates from one or two flights above the hurricane from which, using models they estimate surface speed. We know these are consistently higher than reality, but a higher speed allows for a higher hurricane category and greater media attention.

Can you believe it? Fake news to keep the media abuzz with the “abnormal” nature of this event. But, how abnormal is this really?

The list of North Carolina hurricanes where Florence hit prior to 1900 yields a list of 139 tropical cyclones/hurricanes. In fact, North Carolina was hit by 7 storms during 1893 ALONE!!!!! … The worst hurricane season on record still remains 1893 before “Global Warming”. The 1893 Atlantic hurricane season had 12 tropical storms of which 10 became hurricanes. Then of the 10 hurricanes, FIVE became major hurricanes. Two of those storms kill over 2,000 people each. The 1893 season remains the most deadly storm season in American history.

OK, that was just one year .. but wait, there’s more!

The second season on the list was the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season, where there were 4 Atlantic hurricanes that were active on the same day. The hurricane season is at its peak in August to October. Records before 1851 are really spotty. We do know that the Spanish Treasure Fleet of 11 ships were sunk in a hurricane during 1715, which is believed to be a category 4+.

See the trend. Neither do I.

Back to the REAL factors that can be seen in the destructive nature of hurricanes (remember, even the French in 1782 LEFT the Caribbean during hurricane season to assist the Americans at Yorktown, as they did not want their fleet battered by this seasonal beast):

Over time more and more people moved into the hurricane-prone region and suffered the consequences. All of the more severe consequences resulted from the enabling and false sense of security created by government and insurance companies. For example, two of the greatest loss of lives involved Galveston, Texas and New Orleans. In 1900, an estimated 12,000 people drowned in Galveston because an earthen dam failed. Authorities dramatically downplayed the loss of lives for political and economic reasons. In 2005, hurricane Katrina came ashore at New Orleans, and 1833 people died, most from the flooding. They were behind a dike that the US Army Corps of Engineers sought to fortify but were blocked by environmental groups. Katrina, like Florence, was hyped and even today Wikipedia still says,

Hurricane Katrina was an extremely destructive and deadly Category 5 hurricane that struck the Gulf Coast of the United States in August 2005.

In fact, Katrina was barely Category 3 when it came ashore

Wikipedia also contains fake news!

Also, about insurance companies:

Perhaps the most egregious distortion created by the insurance industry was the claim that hurricanes were increasing in intensity. It turned out the data they used was the increasing cost of claims. Of course, this was almost all due to the increasing gouging for materials and labor before and after the event.

Fake, fake, … fake, fake, fake

The bottom line is that:

[Global Warming] is the biggest fake news story of all created and perpetuated by the bureaucrats who are the deep state. A single small moderate and normal hurricane named Florence demonstrated the level of deceptions across the social and political spectrum. We need to ask how much longer can people who consistently get their forecasts wrong, retain credibility and keep their jobs?

-SF1