From the American Revolution (and much before) through the War of 1812, the so-called “Civil War”, Spanish-American War, WWI, WWII all the way to the various wars the US Empire is supporting these days, what happens (fact) is usually spun by the world’s chess players for fiction, that helps the masses believe various narratives, so they keep their cool. As Bob Lee Swaggar was told in the movie “Shooter“:
In my previous post concerning the shooting of the Russian IL-20 with 15 Russian aviators lost, there is the story (as I told it) versus the story told by those who deep-dive into some real journalism / research.
From a Fort Russ article comes a play-by-play that deconstructs the events of 17SEP2018 (much like many researchers have done with 11SEP2001) and sorts out the facts to show what most likely happened and how the Russian leadership spun it towards their advantage, based on the following:
Using the same map I had posted the other day from the Russian MoD, guest author “FB” gets down into the rich details that standard media will never spend the time on, because there is less money in that:
It is IMPOSSIBLE for an S200 which flies at 2.5 kilometers per second and would cover 100 km in just 40 seconds… to have hit an airplane that continued flying for another ~5 minutes after that close call with the flight of Israeli F16s…
Math helps at this point, no Algebra or Calculus necessary. The sheer speed of a S200 missile does not allow for loitering around the skies like drones do. The missile is frickin’ fast compared to this turboprop recon aircraft:
As “FB” states:
The MoD map clearly shows that the Ilyushin flew north for 40 km after that ‘close encounter’ with the F16s, and then made another right 90 degree turn back toward the Syria coast on its final descent back into Hmeimim. Only after making that turn to final was the airplane hit.
You might think, so what? Well, the S200 operators would have to have launched the missile minutes AFTER the “radar” confusion directly targeting the Russian plane, and no Syrian unit under President Assad would do that, ever!
Much like the OFFICIAL story of 9/11 .. this one as well is IMPOSSIBLE. Basic physics does not discriminate.
So what IS in the realm of possibility?:
… The Russian MoD stated clearly two additional piece of information.
1…the French frigate Auvergne was nearby the Ilyushin flight, as depicted on the map, and was in fact recorded firing missiles…
2…British jets were also in the air, with their transponders turned on…making it possible to track them even with civilian ATC radar.
… At the same time, we also know that the US is flying the high altitude U2 spy plane out of Akrotiri.
The West has it resources in the area of the eastern Mediterranean and the Russians have their resources …:
.. we also know that a number of Russian ships were in that area at the time, and still are, and are in fact this entire week conducting live fire drills, more on that in a moment. Those ships also have sophisticated radar and also infrared sensors which picked up the missile firing from the French ship.
Besides that we have the Beriev A50U AWACS aircraft in Syria..and it is safe to assume that they would have been in the air at the time of the Ilyushin flight…
.. as well as the ill-fated IL-20, whose flight path flew a circuit over Idlib and then cruises for about 40 km off the coast of Syria, well outside the Syrian territorial airspace. With all the activity in the eastern Mediterranean it is expected that this plane would have been gathering Intel over Idlib as well as over the Med.
Back to the options at hand:
The French ship firing missiles [what kind of missiles surface to air…?…the frigate is equipped with very capable Aster SAMs.
And also the British aircraft in the air at the time and flying out of Akrotiri, there are 9 Eurofighter Typhoons there, equipped with long range air to air AIM120 radar guided missiles, and also 10 Tornados equipped with shorter range heat seeking AIM9x…
..[The Israeli jets could not have fired at the Ilyushin, since they were flying in the opposite direction at the time the airplane was hit…and it is impossible to aim a missile at a target behind your airplane.]
Physics point to the French or British, but with all the facts in hand (except for the black box from the IL-20) why would Putin suggest it was the Israeli military that is to blame for this incident? Well, “FB” lays out the obvious options that would be detrimental politically to Russia:
Now let us consider the question of why Putin is not saying anything about possible British or French involvement in the shooting down of the valuable Ilyushin electronic warfare aircraft.
First, what purpose would it serve to now come out and accuse two NATO countries of an act of war? Is not this kind of escalation exactly what NATO is looking to provoke in Syria? Is Putin supposed to now declare war on NATO?
The last thing Putin wants to do is fulfill the dreams of the Neo-Cons in Washington DC or in Tel Aviv .. or in Paris or London for that matter!
Or does it make more sense to blame Israel because Israel is the only party that can be proved to have been doing something illegal at the time, i.e bombing a sovereign country [an illegal act of aggression], and at the same time trampling all the protocol and agreements in place between Russia and Israel on the matter of Israeli operations against ‘Iranian’ forces in Syria?
I am not sure the West could have foreseen this play, OR it could be that the West “allowed” an out, as this is geo-politics on a global scale. “FB” goes on:
As things stand now, no one can defend Israel’s actions on that night. Israel realizes that Russia is very angry and Israel must now alter its behavior as to bombing Syria. Russia will also take steps to increase the security of all Russian assets in Syria. There will not be a repeat performance of this carefully planned ambush of the Ilyushin.
For Russia and Syria both, this is a win-win in the midst of a HUGE tragedy for the 15 man crew and their families. The Russian people are not happy as it seems that the West can launch missiles into Syria and render damage to Russian military as well as their resources WITHOUT retribution, but the wisdom of Sun Tze is worth repeating:
Move not unless you see an advantage; use not your troops unless there is something to be gained; fight not unless the position is critical.
No ruler should put troops into the field merely to gratify his own spleen; no general should fight a battle simply out of pique.
If it is to your advantage, make a forward move; if not, stay where you are.
-SF1