How Geopolitics Spins the Facts: Always Has, Always Will

http://snafu-solomon.blogspot.fi/2013/09/med-fleet-deployment-graphic-via.html

From the American Revolution (and much before) through the War of 1812, the so-called “Civil War”, Spanish-American War, WWI, WWII all the way to the various wars the US Empire is supporting these days, what happens (fact) is usually spun by the world’s chess players for fiction, that helps the masses believe various narratives, so they keep their cool. As Bob Lee Swaggar was told in the movie “Shooter“:

In my previous post concerning the shooting of the Russian IL-20 with 15 Russian aviators lost, there is the story (as I told it) versus the story told by those who deep-dive into some real journalism / research.

From a Fort Russ article comes a play-by-play that deconstructs the events of 17SEP2018 (much like many researchers have done with 11SEP2001) and sorts out the facts to show what most likely happened and how the Russian leadership spun it towards their advantage, based on the following:

Using the same map I had posted the other day from the Russian MoD, guest author “FB” gets down into the rich details that standard media will never spend the time on, because there is less money in that:

It is IMPOSSIBLE for an S200 which flies at 2.5 kilometers per second and would cover 100 km in just 40 seconds… to have hit an airplane that continued flying for another ~5 minutes after that close call with the flight of Israeli F16s…

Math helps at this point, no Algebra or Calculus necessary. The sheer speed of a S200 missile does not allow for loitering around the skies like drones do. The missile is frickin’ fast compared to this turboprop recon aircraft:

As “FB” states:

The MoD map clearly shows that the Ilyushin flew north for 40 km after that ‘close encounter’ with the F16s, and then made another right 90 degree turn back toward the Syria coast on its final descent back into Hmeimim. Only after making that turn to final was the airplane hit.

You might think, so what? Well, the S200 operators would have to have launched the missile minutes AFTER the “radar” confusion directly targeting the Russian plane, and no Syrian unit under President Assad would do that, ever!

Much like the OFFICIAL story of 9/11 .. this one as well is IMPOSSIBLE. Basic physics does not discriminate.

So what IS in the realm of possibility?:

… The Russian MoD stated clearly two additional piece of information.

1…the French frigate Auvergne was nearby the Ilyushin flight, as depicted on the map, and was in fact recorded firing missiles…

2…British jets were also in the air, with their transponders turned on…making it possible to track them even with civilian ATC radar.

… At the same time, we also know that the US is flying the high altitude U2 spy plane out of Akrotiri.

French frigate Auvergne (D654)

The West has it resources in the area of the eastern Mediterranean and the Russians have their resources …:

.. we also know that a number of Russian ships were in that area at the time, and still are, and are in fact this entire week conducting live fire drills, more on that in a moment. Those ships also have sophisticated radar and also infrared sensors which picked up the missile firing from the French ship.

Besides that we have the Beriev A50U AWACS aircraft in Syria..and it is safe to assume that they would have been in the air at the time of the Ilyushin flight…

.. as well as the ill-fated IL-20, whose flight path flew a circuit over Idlib and then cruises for about 40 km off the coast of Syria, well outside the Syrian territorial airspace. With all the activity in the eastern Mediterranean it is expected that this plane would have been gathering Intel over Idlib as well as over the Med.

Back to the options at hand:

The French ship firing missiles [what kind of missiles surface to air…?…the frigate is equipped with very capable Aster SAMs.

And also the British aircraft in the air at the time and flying out of Akrotiri, there are 9 Eurofighter Typhoons there, equipped with long range air to air AIM120 radar guided missiles, and also 10 Tornados equipped with shorter range heat seeking AIM9x…

..[The Israeli jets could not have fired at the Ilyushin, since they were flying in the opposite direction at the time the airplane was hit…and it is impossible to aim a missile at a target behind your airplane.]

Physics point to the French or British, but with all the facts in hand (except for the black box from the IL-20) why would Putin suggest it was the Israeli military that is to blame for this incident? Well, “FB” lays out the obvious options that would be detrimental politically to Russia:

Now let us consider the question of why Putin is not saying anything about possible British or French involvement in the shooting down of the valuable Ilyushin electronic warfare aircraft.

First, what purpose would it serve to now come out and accuse two NATO countries of an act of war? Is not this kind of escalation exactly what NATO is looking to provoke in Syria? Is Putin supposed to now declare war on NATO?

The last thing Putin wants to do is fulfill the dreams of the Neo-Cons in Washington DC or in Tel Aviv .. or in Paris or London for that matter!

Or does it make more sense to blame Israel because Israel is the only party that can be proved to have been doing something illegal at the time, i.e bombing a sovereign country [an illegal act of aggression], and at the same time trampling all the protocol and agreements in place between Russia and Israel on the matter of Israeli operations against ‘Iranian’ forces in Syria?

I am not sure the West could have foreseen this play, OR it could be that the West “allowed” an out, as this is geo-politics on a global scale. “FB” goes on:

As things stand now, no one can defend Israel’s actions on that night. Israel realizes that Russia is very angry and Israel must now alter its behavior as to bombing Syria. Russia will also take steps to increase the security of all Russian assets in Syria. There will not be a repeat performance of this carefully planned ambush of the Ilyushin.

For Russia and Syria both, this is a win-win in the midst of a HUGE tragedy for the 15 man crew and their families. The Russian people are not happy as it seems that the West can launch missiles into Syria and render damage to Russian military as well as their resources WITHOUT retribution, but the wisdom of Sun Tze is worth repeating:

Move not unless you see an advantage; use not your troops unless there is something to be gained; fight not unless the position is critical.

No ruler should put troops into the field merely to gratify his own spleen; no general should fight a battle simply out of pique.

If it is to your advantage, make a forward move; if not, stay where you are.

-SF1

West Virginia: How Did It Happen?

Notice that in this June 1861 map, the Confederate States of America are represented in gray. Look closely and you will see a part of Virginia that reaches within 100 miles of Canada almost slitting what is left of the “Union” in two.

If you could look closer you would see the railroad lines that go through that region that connect the east with the west (current Midwest) … and now you start to see how nervous Lincoln was about this area.

Lincoln already had cannon aimed at Dover, DE to prevent that state from considering secession, and in MD Lincoln placed all who were suspected of voting for secession in jail. Dealing with those counties in Virginia that had the railroad lines, coal and timber would take a little bit longer. However, being a new dictator has its privileges.

To know why Virginia seceded, you have to know what happened. The first time Virginia voted, they said NO to secession. Then Lincoln attempted to resupply two southern forts still under his control (Fort Sumter in South Carolina and Fort Pickens in Alabama) there was cannon fire in Charleston Harbor BUT no one was killed. The fort surrendered and then Lincoln called up 75,000 volunteers from all his states (36 minus the 7 that had left the union) to put down an “insurrection” (he took care not to call them states) and he did not fathom the fallout from that fateful decision. Four more states would leave the union with Virginia voting again and this time in favor of leaving. If the reason was to keep slavery, don’t you think the vote would have been the same both times? If it was the high tariffs, the vote should have been the same as well. Maybe, just maybe, these regions did not want to be a colony of another empire yet again!!!

One look at the demographics will reveal a lot about the area south of Wheeling that had ZERO say in what happened next according to quotes below from the Abbeville Institute article from June:

.. In 1860 the mountainous counties of northwestern Virginia cared little about slavery. Even in the southern counties McDowell had 10% slaves, Mercer 150 of a total population of 4500. …. The B & O Railroad, running across northwestern Virginia, provided a vital link between the Yankee states and the West. This explains why the first battle of the War took place at Philippi ‘West’ Virginia…

People generally can tell when the weather is changing .. no different by 1860 when those in western sections of Virginia and the rest of the south saw this:

… western Virginians were horrified by the hijacking of the federal government by Northern industrialists and bankers in 1860. Money had totally bought out the law. A railroad corporate lawyer, Abraham Lincoln, president, swore to defeat the Democratic states even in the North, i.e., New York State, Ohio and the so-called Copperhead states in the West. To the so-called Radical Republicans this was a real civil war. They had to subjugate the Democratic Party representing the workers’ interests. The world was shocked. Even the pope called Lincoln a “tyrant and a usurper” and sent President Jefferson Davis a crown of thorns…

Yes, they sensed what had been coming for several generations, something Patrick Henry prophesied about that rule by a corrupt majority to the north was coming true.

Then, the fallout continued as key US Army personnel had to make some big decisions based on selfish interests OR on principle:

.. General Lee (today called a traitor in the national media) had to resign his commission in the US Army so as not to help subject his native Virginia to the rule of Northern bankers. In the Sound of Music, Captain von Trapp was similarly forced to flee the Nazis…

Since this “Union” that Lincoln professed to keep seemed so very fragile, (actually, it was his party’s inability to hold on to political power indefinitely) it was decided to manufacturer another state for electoral votes needed in 1864 (they admitted Nevada prematurely for the same reason). The method they used is found no where in the Constitution .. but like all things of the Republican party at that time .. you just make things up because the ends justify the means:

.. Just create a “Restored Government of Virginia” in federally controlled areas near Washington. Appoint a governor, Francis Pierpont, and of course an ad hoc legislature. Propose one bill, devoted to the question of secession of the northwestern counties. Vote for it, get paid and go home. Democracy was somewhat crushed, of course. Twenty-two counties did not vote. One county “sent” one representative, some guy who elected himself, etc. But the whole thing worked like a charm, at least in the Union media. The cover-up was well under way. As of June 20, 1863 the federal government declared West Virginia a new state. ..

So even after the war, West Virginia was kept from being part of Virginia again .. politics:

… In legal limbo, ‘West’ Virginia did not democratically or legally secede. Neither was it annexed with any real popular support. Like India as a British colony, our people are seen as second-class citizens, if that. We are berated for our accents and behavior. And we are blamed for a system we did not create. Like the rest of the Confederate states we are in fact a colony…

I contend that except in the big political power centers of major metro areas, the rest of this country is treated as colonies … taxed to feed the federal beast. The American Empire.

Sick I know, but true. Now you know what your high school history teacher forgot to tell you.

-SF1

28SEP1780: South Carolina’s Internal Civil War Means It’s About Family

The wars this nation (originally known as the united States of America, emphasis on States OVER “united” or ‘union’) has been involved in since the so-called “Civil War” from 1861-1865 have rarely pitted family members against each other. Sure there are many of those whose family have come over from a land where true civil war was fought. However, a war that splits families and generations only has occurred in 1775-1783 and 1861-1865 in the USA.

NOTE: The definition of civil war implies that the contestants or factions desire control of the entire country. This was NOT the case when the southern States started seceding in late 1860 and by spring 1861 had formed a federation fashioned after the original 13 States, whose goal was independence of 7 states NOT control of > 30 states! But I digress.

By 1780 in South Carolina, there were those who have switched sides (Tory to Whig or visa versa) especially after the British secured Charleston harbor. Many former militiamen were now Tory/Loyalists and backing the crown, King George, and the Redcoats.

Francis Marion’s family was no exception to the rule. One can read history and easily gloss over the names and not be aware that these people were in the same circles, were at each other’s weddings and funerals before the war.

It is essential to get some background at this point of Marion’s story as he re-enters South Carolina in late September. From the book, The Swamp Fox: How Francis Marion Saved the American Revolution, the author John Oller states pretty clearly the relationships and relational lines that connected many of these men that were shooting at each other:

… Marion knew these Tories. They were from St. James and St. Stephens Parishes, the French Santee and English Santee of Marion’s family. John Coming Ball, a local rice planter, was a half-brother of Elias Ball, the Tory whose tip had helped Banastre Tarleton defeat the rebels at Lenud’s Ferry in May. A Whig militiaman who switched sides after Charleston fell, Elias Ball was married to a Gaillard, whose sister married Marion’s brother Job (his second marriage), with Marion serving as best man…

… Peter Gaillard, another member of that prominent Huguenot family, was John Coming Ball’s second in command. Although only a lukewarm Tory, Gaillard was under the influence of his rabidly loyalist father and had served on one of the early expeditions designed to hunt down Marion. John Peyre, whose family was related by marriage to the Gaillards, Balls, and Marions, had been neutral until the fall of Charleston, after which he took British protection and became a strong Tory.

Needless to say, not only was there societal connections, there were also plenty of reasons to opt for revenge. Once again Francis Marion rises above the others and with his leadership offers a long-term view:

Although these neighbors and relatives were out to kill him, Marion took none of it personally. He would later describe the Tory militia at Black Mingo Creek as “men of family and fortune” who had shown themselves to be “good men” before the outbreak of civil war. He even hoped to convert some of them to his cause.

What a refreshing attitude to have in the middle of this life and death struggle among families. How many men (and women) today would consider the high road when faced with desperate times such as these?

Before twilight on 28SEP1780, Marion and his men had crossed the Great Pee Dee River on flatboats and camped at Witherspoon’s Ferry. Here, Marion met up with Capt. John James Jr. and Capt. Henry Mouzon (the author of the 1775 map I use in this series). Good Intel about a Tory presence was shared and again Marion chose to keep it secret and to rest his troops for a few hours before waking them up to ride south towards Dollard’s Tavern on Black Mingo Creek 15 miles away.

In a future post I will cover what happened at that tavern one of the few times Marion outnumbered his opponents. It involves a man, John Coming Ball, and his horse, and a whole lot more.

Stay tuned.

-SF1

24SEP1780: Intel Received is Evaluated – Time to Move Out of the Swamp

In my last post about Francis Marion, he and a subset of his men were hold up in a mosquito infested swamp just inside North Carolina.

[NOTE: Today, this same swamp would be a huge lake as Hurricane Florence dumped 20+ inches of rain on this exact area this past week in 2018.]

So with Intel detailing the destruction in the Williamsburg SC area being communicated by Major James including details on house burnings, church burnings and turning churches into British army depots, a plan was formed following the same strategy that had given them successes so far in their fight against the tyrannical British effort in the region.

On Sep 24th 1780 after two weeks in the swamp, Marion heads back into South Carolina and at nightfall on 25SEP they reach Kingston (now called Conway) and camp along the Waccamaw River.

[NOTE: In the next few days here in 2018, this river is expected to crest FIVE feet above the highest level seen in recorded history in this region]

Marion and his men end up traveling 60 miles in two days and finds much support as he arrives. He utilizes locals from the Pee Dee River area to guide the 60 man militia through three miles of swamp to avoid detection and with horses swim across the river so by 27SEP they were positioned for another strike in the area.

The strategy again involved, keeping your plans close-in, allowing his men to go to sleep good and then wake them for a night attack .. (to be covered in a subsequent post)

The cool leadership demonstrated by Marion early on in his militia-led actions showed that while there was common ground in the patriot leadership, there were big differences as well. Thomas Sumter (Gamecock) was combative, bold and rash in his approach whereas Francis Marion (later called the Swamp Fox) was described as timid, cautious and would risk nothing. Cornwallis himself would describe Marion as cautious and vigilant and would not jeopardize his men’s lives by relying on Intel, careful planning and shrewd tactics.

Again, it is essential when engaging a force with more resources that one is strategic in engaging the enemy, especially a global empire.

-SF1

Did Israel (France, UK, US) Just Overplay Their Hand in Syria?

17SEP2018 Russian MOD Map – Syrian coastline (Red) Russian IL-20 AWACS Surveillance Plane Route (Blue) Israeli F-16 and French naval ship actions

To understand the chess match (yes, leaders of the “free” world are sociopaths who love this “game” that involves other people’s lives) that is being played out on the world’s stage I will be drawing from various sources for this post:

  • Pat Buchanan’s article from Lew Rockwell
  • Moon of Alabama’s article
  • Robert Bridge article from Strategic Culture share on Lew Rockwell

[NOTE: A good researcher pulls from various sources and also thinks critically about the situation at hand before sharing their own thoughts]

From a high level view a few days later it becomes clear that Putin took a lot of heat from those in Syria as well in his own country in not retaliating against the actions of the west in the Mediterranean Sea near Syria this past week. I think of the mechanical operation of a ratchet, using rather small moves one can over time place a lot of torque on a situation IF one is patient and in the end have the upper hand.

Moon of Alabama, who follows the events in the Middle East so very well (I highly recommend a site visit there and IF you feel inclined, please do considering supporting that site) has a great overview of the political milestones that led up to this moment where a Russian propeller plane is accidentally shot down by a Syrian S-200 missile site that was focused on an Israeli F-16 that was shadowing the Russian IL-20 AWACS-like plane. Less than 24 hours prior to this setup:

Turkey and Russia agreed on a further de-escalation in Idelb province in Syria (see the update here). This agreement takes away the chance of an imminent wider war in which the U.S. and some of its allies would use a fake ‘chemical attack’ as a pretext to launch missiles against a large number of Syrian government targets and military positions.

.. peace was about to break out in Syria. However:

A peaceful solution of the Idleb situation is unsatisfying for Israel. The successful Syrian defeat of the Jihadi enemy inside the country would allow Syria and its allies to concentrate their forces against Israel. Israel wants the Syrian government destroyed and the country in chaos.

On Sunday September 16 Israel tried to hit an Iranian Boeing 747 freight plane at Damascus airport. The plane allegedly carried an Iranian copy of the Russian S-300 long range air defense System for the Syrian army.

Imagine any country in this world that can get away with attacking INSIDE another sovereign country and getting away with it. I can only think of two countries, Israel and the United States of America.

On Monday around 10:00pm local time 4 F-16 jets of the Israeli airforce, coming from the sea, launched missiles against at least three targets on Syria’s coast. The strike came only hours after Israel released satellite images of what it called “strategic targets” in Syria. The integrated Syrian and Russian air-defenses responded.

The Israeli air force had warned the Russian forces in Syria only one minute before the strike. A Russian IL-20 electronic warfare airplane (red line) was preparing to land at the Russian airport near Latakia just as the Israeli attack (blue) happened.

Israel chose to give a 60 second warning that could never be enough time for the IL-20 propeller plane to clear out of an area to a safer zone. Israel knew this but wanted to provoke the “Bear” so as not to loose even more strategic ground in the Middle East for their “defense”. Israel has chosen this path, and there will be blowback.

The IL-20 was hit 35 kilometers off the coast by a S-200 air-defense missile fired by the Syrian military towards the Israeli attack. There were 15 Russian soldiers on board of the plane which were likely all killed.

The Israeli attack came out of the same direction as the Russian IL-20. The large 4 propeller plane creates a much bigger radar reflection than the small F-16s fighter jets. The S-200 missiles have a semi-active radar homing seeker. These are passive detectors of a radar signal which is provided by an external source, in this case the Syrian and Russian radars on the ground. While the missile was aimed at the F-16 its seeker likely mistook the larger radar reflection of IL-20 for the intended target.

At the same time as the Israeli air force attacked, a Russian frigate (red) near the coast detected missile launches from the French Frigate Auvergne (blue) nearby. The French frigate carries air, ship and land attack missiles.

With so many Russian ships in the area plus Russian and Syrian radar sites on the mainland in Syria, there is plenty of evidence untainted by spin by Western powers to twist. Similar to Lincoln’s provocation at Ft. Sumter and FDR’s provocation of the Japanese before Pearl Harbor and even Bush I’s green light to Saddam in Kuwait at the start of Gulf War I, this was a blatant attempt at provoking conflict in the midst of the last two years of Russian accusations (election meddling) and US sanctions.

Sure the bully (Israel) “apologized” but said “it was not our missile”. Whatever. There is ZERO honor in that and there was no US response that indicated any kind of remorse at all.

The honor (again) came from “Cool Hand” Putin. As Robert Bridge points out:

Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, took admirable efforts to prevent the blame game from reaching the boiling point, telling reporters that the downing of the Russian aircraft was the result of “a chain of tragic circumstances, because the Israeli plane didn’t shoot down our jet.”

Nevertheless, following this extremely tempered and reserved remark, Putin vowed that Russia would take extra precautions to protect its troops in Syria, saying these will be “the steps that everyone will notice.”

Now there is much consternation in Israel that the IDF will soon find its freedom to conduct operations against targets in Syria greatly impaired. That’s because Russia, having just suffered a ‘friendly-fire’ incident from its own antiquated S-200 system, may now be more open to the idea of providing Syria with the more advanced S-300 air-defense system.

.. or even the highly advanced S-400 systems:

The Israeli gamble did NOT pay off. Their reputation as a greedy neighbor who steals and maims others in the ‘hood all the while not adhering to international law that it demands others to follow. (While having 200+ nukes in their back pocket) The Russians know this and are being very patient in protecting a friend that asked for assistance back in 2015.

In summary, Pat Buchanan does a masterful job at giving a grand overview that spans decades of political ebb and flow on a global scale when he states:

By the end of his second term, President Ronald Reagan, who had called the Soviet Union an “evil empire,” was strolling through Red Square with Russians slapping him on the back.

Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive. And how have we husbanded the fruits of our Cold War triumph?

This month, China’s leader-for-life Xi Jinping stood beside Vladimir Putin as 3,000 Chinese troops maneuvered with 300,000 Russians, 1,000 planes and 900 tanks in Moscow’s largest military exercise in 40 years.

An uncoded message to the West from the East. Richard Nixon’s great achievement in bringing Peking in from the cold, and Reagan’s great achievement of ending the Cold War, are history.

Squandered. The “shining city on a hill” and “American Exceptionalism” are but a myth. The real DNA of our government along with that of Israel and NATO aligned countries are bent on war. Pat continues:

.. Bolshevism may be dead, but Russian nationalism, awakened by NATO’s quick march to Russia’s ancient frontiers, is alive and well. Russia appears to have given up on the West and accepted that its hopes for better times with President Donald Trump are not to be.

U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is berating Russia for secretly trading with North Korea in violation of U.N. sanctions, saying, “Lying, cheating, and rogue behavior have become the new norm of the Russian culture.” Cold wars don’t get much colder than defaming another country’s culture as morally debased.

The U.S. has also signaled that it may start supplying naval and anti-aircraft weaponry to Ukraine, as Russia is being warned to cease its inspections of ships passing from the Black Sea through the Kerch Strait into the Sea of Azov. The three-mile-wide strait lies between Crimea and Kerch Peninsula. In Russia’s eyes, both banks of the strait are Russian national territory.

With U.S. backing, Ukraine has decided to build a naval base on the Sea of Azov to “create conditions for rebuffing the aggressive actions of the Russian Federation in this region.”

Kiev has several patrol boats in the Sea of Azov, with a few more to be transferred there in coming months. Russia’s navy could sink those boats and wipe out that base in minutes. Are we going to send our Navy across the Black Sea to protect Ukraine’s naval rights inside a sea that has been as historically Russian as the Chesapeake Bay is historically American? ..

This is the height of American Empire stupidity. It is what Thomas Jefferson feared centuries ago that the United States arrogance may lead to:

Trade is honorable. Political solutions that promote peace is honorable.

The American Empire is not (nor has it been since the end of WWII) honorable. You can’t fix this, you can’t drain the swamp enough BUT you can research for yourself the reality of today’s political world and it does impact you, indirectly maybe, but it will eventually touch you or your kid’s lives. Not unlike the Roman Empire, this empire is entering its last days and only God knows the months or years this will take.

Be prepared

-SF1