Protecting Sea Lanes VS Regime Change and Intervention Based US Foreign Policy

US bases around Iran

The only way the US elites that utilize collectivism (democracy, socialism, communism, Marxism) as a means to get what they want (which usually has to do with wealth and power, as the wise man Solomon said, “nothing new under the sun”), can continue to get what they want, someday, they will have to address how they are killing the goose that lays the golden eggs.

Empire is fun and games until it all starts crashing down, and this is what the elites do not want to happen because then their “game” ends. Anyone who knows economics can see all the red flags, the unsustainable national debt, the unfunded liabilities and the fact that false statistics can’t fool the masses forever, especially when it means their EBT card no longer works. Someday the government will run out of other people’s money, so these last few years or maybe a decade will be quote a tight-rope.

This has everything to do with the US foreign policy, since violence around the globe ensures the military-industrial complex’s money to keep flowing, which is our biggest export. It all comes at a cost when maintaining a “global force for good” actually approaches $1T annually if you figure in the whole “defense” structure from the deep state, the federal portion of the police state (NSA, HSA, etc) as well as the military.

This whole Iran fiasco is just a result of the war-hawks looking for another fight, and quick. North Korea and Venezuela have faded as has Syria. The US Empire needs violence to continue on its path to ensure “job security” for its main role in the world and especially for its main buddy, Israel. Only Saudi Arabia and the UK round out the top three US partners that it would risk false flagging something for their benefit. In context, if you fail to understand what happened in 1953 with Iran (Operation Boot (UK), Operation Ajax (US) ), then you really are unaware of what our foreign policy history has done to relationships between two countries.

What is funny, is how nationalistic Iran is as a result, and how the US also has extreme elements of nationalistic thought that bridges any perceived gap between GOP and Democrats. This state worship, along with a flag that is supposed to represent bringing freedom to its citizens in THEIR pursuit of happiness, brings me to a gag reflex.

The US flag is no longer about freedom. How did our freedom go to Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Syria and a dozen other countries that we meddle in? The US flag is actually just an icon of the corporations that benefit from the US foreign policy. Internet search Smedley Butler and you will see for yourself that this highly decorated Marine actually saw this after he left the US armed forces in the 1930s. Nothing has changed, except it has gotten much worse.

Instead of being all doom and gloom on this beautiful Sunday morning, just days after war with Iran has apparently been averted for now, I will conclude with a small nugget of hope that the leaders of the free world might be able to pull off, from this article that Zero Hedge offers:

The tenth international meeting on security has just concluded in the Russian the city of Ufa. The forum has been under-reported, but it represents one of the few global examples of multilateral meetings between high-level representatives of countries that are in conflict. Hundreds of representatives from as many as 120 countries attended the meeting over three days to discuss humanitarian crises, hybrid warfare, terrorist threats and ways to recover from armed conflict.

This by itself is not noteworthy, but once you understand who participated this year for the first time in four years is none other than the United States of America!

President Putin’s speech for this conference was read aloud, it included a hope for the future:

“I expect your communication to be substantial and fruitful, and will help achieve our common goal of creating a reliable, flexible, indivisible and equal for all security system at the regional and global level. US exit from arms reduction treaties undermines global security. This forum has fully proved to be in demand and effective, ensuring a dialogue on countering global challenges. The meeting’s agenda addresses problems requiring joint solutions and collective action, overcoming the consequences of armed conflict and humanitarian problems, as well as ensuring information security.”

Putin does not mince words as to the ramifications associated with the US exit from the arms reduction treaty did. I am sure the war-hawks suggested this to Trump who thinks every negotiation requires going radical at first and then stretching the adversary to accept terms favorable to the US. Well, this does not work in most cultures that favor honorable negotiations instead of bully tactics.

More from the conference:

The world is at a critical historical juncture, with potential or already volatile situations present on the Korean peninsula, in Venezuela, Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan, Iran, Libya, Ukraine, the Arctic, the Persian Gulf, and the Baltic, Black and South China Seas. Other volatile situations can be found in the cyber and information-warfare domains, as well as in the competition in space.

With so many potential flashpoints, a conference to address these dangers is most welcome. The fact that 120 countries have the opportunity to talk and think about possible ways for de-escalation is a rare opportunity that should not be left to go to waste.

I think the fact that major media tends to ignore this only goes to show that it has a narrative to keep intact. The whole premise of statism is to keep the populace alarmed, all the time!

This conference ran from 18-20JUN2019 and I am sure it was no coincidence that the US decided to put a drone dangerously close to Iranian airspace after one of their leaders, the Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Ali Shamkhani, said:

“We currently face demonstrative threats. Nevertheless, when it comes to air defense of our country, we consider using the foreign potential in addition to our domestic capacities… Mediation is out of question in the current situation. The United States has unilaterally withdrawn from the JCPOA, it has flouted its obligations and it has introduced illegal sanctions against Iran. The United States should return to the starting point and correct its own mistakes. This process needs no mediation,”

“This [gradually boosting of uranium enrichment and heavy water production beyond the levels outlined in the JCPOA] is a serious decision of the Islamic Republic [of Iran] and we will continue doing it step by step until JCPOA violators move toward agreement and return to fulfilling their obligations. [If JCPOA participants do not comply with the deal, Iran will be reducing its commitments] step by step within legal mechanisms that the JCPOA envisions.”

Boom! They are calling Trump’s bluff / false-flag attempt and now the US needs to save face to exit this situation because you know they would never admit to any mistake they might have made against Iran or its people:

Iranian Airliner Flight 655 03JUL1988 – 290 passengers – all killed from a missile fired from the USS Vincennes (CG-49)

So between 1953 assassination of their president, supporting the Shah of Iran and his ruthless rule until 1979, supporting Saddam with chemical weapons used in his war against Iran from 1984-1988, the 1988 shooting down of their civilian passenger jet, and countless other atrocities the US government has committed against a country that has not invaded another country in over 200 years, why would their government or their people ever believe the US government?

Ever!

I wouldn’t. A nations character is determined by its actions over time. The US’s character in domestic and world affairs has been going downhill for decades, even over a century. This nation has long passed the time when the world might see us as a “shining city on a hill”.

Prior to 1850 there were those who thought that America had this capability, but unfortunately that effort was squandered by many of our founding fathers when they opted to become British Empire 2.0 in a way that would not require the US to appear imperialistic.  In his book ‘Democracy In America’, Frenchman Alexis de Tocqueville was lyrical in his propaganda-like adulation of American exceptionalism, defining it almost as divine providence:

“When the earth was given to men by the Creator, the earth was inexhaustible. But men were weak and ignorant, and when they had learned to take advantage of the treasures which it contained, they already covered its surface and were soon obliged to earn by the sword an asylum for repose and freedom. Just then North America was discovered, as if it had been kept in reserve by the Deity and had risen from beneath the waters of the deluge”

Yeah, if Alexis would have lived another 15 years he would have seen his dream for America dashed all due to the response of Abraham Lincoln to the thought of major businesses in the northern states experiencing financial hardships due to the inability of the US government to keep them on the welfare dole called “internal improvements” paid out of tariff revenue collected mainly in southern US ports prior to 1860.

This is and has been the US “flag” since before the Civil War as their is zero honor in a flag that has not brought true freedom to the people since 1782.

In fact, the state militias and France did more to secure that freedom than did the US Continental Army.

-SF1

High School History: Appeasement and Chamberlain, What Word Do You Think of Next?

Hands clasped in friendship, Adolf Hitler and England’s Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, are shown in this historic pose at Munich on Sept. 30, 1938. This was the day when the premier of France and England signed the Munich agreement, sealing the fate of Czechoslovakia. Next to Chamberlain is Sir Neville Henderson, British Ambassador to Germany. Paul Schmidt, an Interpreter, stands next to Hitler. (AP Photo)

My word is “weak”.

From my own experiences in classrooms from 1960s to 1970s, the appeasement of Germany was an error that resulted in Germany almost taking over the world. The problem with this thinking is that since WWII there has been a revisionist effort that finally started in the 1960s using documents from all sources, from British, American and French to Russian, German and Austrian as well that challenges this common thinking.

In fact, until the early 1960s, the myth that appeasement was in error was solidly supported by all official books of that day until the magnificent work by A.J .P. Taylor, The Origins of the Second World War (London: Hamish Hamilton, 1961 — now New York: Athenaeum, 1962) was released. The beauty of this book was that Taylor had formally supported the myth in full with his previous writings. This about face in the early 1960s helped to unpack what really happened in 1938-1939 regarding appeasement.

Furthermore, Murray Rothbard summarizes what really happened in the pre-WWI, WWI, pre-WWII and WWII period:

World War I was essentially a clash between Germany and Austria vs. Russia over who would dominate Eastern Europe, with Britain, France, and U.S. meddling into the fray.

The peculiar defeat of both Germany and Russia in World War I, opened up, artificially, the path for national self-determination in Eastern Europe, a task which was terribly botched at Versailles. New injustices were created there, especially for the defeated countries.

By 1939, Germany and Russia were at peace over Eastern Europe, and yet Britain precipitated war by leaping to war over a Poland which could not exist in defiance of both its great neighbors.

Finally, as a result of Britain, and the U.S. meddling into a war over Eastern Europe which did not properly concern them and Germany’s tragic blunder in attacking Russia, the conquest of Germany naturally left Russia in virtual charge over Eastern Europe, again its sphere of influence.

What prompted me to better understand what I call the “inter-war” period from the end of WWI in 1918 to the beginning of WWII in 1939 was a book my oldest son gave me for my birthday/Father’s Day called “Appeasement” by Tim Bouverie. Written from a British perspective, Tim paints the 1938 efforts as a lost cause for keeping the world safe from Nazi expansionism. I knew I was in trouble when I read the following early on in his book:

.. while today the concept of appeasement is gaining new currency as the West struggles to respond to Russian revanchism and aggression ..

Can we take a look at who is doing the aggression?

But I digress.

Today’s post is not a review of this book that I just opened, that will occur at a later date when I have read all 512 pages. ETA = TBD

My point today is that any book on any subject that has you reflecting on what you thought you knew, can launch you into doing research in and around the book reading to attempt to get at the nugget of truth that is typically obscured by an overriding narrative that the masses like to believe.

Reading a “wrong” book or a book from a different perspective from your own should never be seen as a waste of time. In fact, it is usually this kind of ‘entertaining a thought without accepting it’ is essential towards being a true CSI’er of our history. Part of understanding the future is knowing how to sift the “news” and “events” of today and tomorrow towards understanding what is really happening, and then being prepared to adjust your own sails as a result so you do not end up like this (unless you are prepared to do so):

So get out there and read as your heart guides you. Soak up the challenge that comes from considering competing narratives, philosophies and beliefs. Be willing to go against the flow and always seek to be prepared to make the most out of difficult situations that happens in the storms of life.

Sometimes, reading what you sense to be your adversary’s view may be the best way to understand them in a way that they themselves might not understand. Savvy? True dialog can only occur when you understand what others base their thinking on and why they might think that way.

Also, happy Father’s Day to all fathers. Please understand your role in helping the next generation to question everything, even if that means you will have to admit from time to time that even you do not understand everything and that mystery in this world is a given. The dialog itself is essential for fathers and their sons and daughters, for friends and for communities to unpack life in this broken place we currently call home.

Enjoy your day!

-SF!

US Empire (Which Lies Like a Rug!) Gets Impatient with Iran: Why Does Iran Bug the US War-hawks So Much?

American exceptionalism gives those in power the encouragement to make believe that any means necessary are acceptable to accomplish the American Dream on a global scale.

The US Empire is morally bankrupt. As in society and community circles, a person’s actions, when compared to their words, determine the type of character they really are. The habitual liar’s history goes a long way in understanding what, if anything, that comes out of their mouth can be believed.

From Moon of Alabama comes a right understanding of the current situation with Iran, especially after the US immediately accused Iran of attacking oil tankers off their shore WITHOUT any evidence. As with the WMDs in Iraq, the Malaysian passenger jet shot down over Ukraine and “chemical weapons” attacks in Syria, the Western governments and their media know that the masses of people will only pay attention to the first few snippets of news and will never think again months and years later as to what really happened after careful investigations are completed.

From the Moon of Alabama article:

To say that the attacks were provocations by the U.S. or its Middle East allies is made easier by their evident ruthlessness. Any accusations by the Trump administration of Iranian culpability will be easily dismissed because everyone knows that Trump and his crew are notorious liars.

We do have a history of US government lying going back years, decades and even centuries, ask the American Indians about US treaties!

We know the damned lies from the US government as well. The US republic, or federation or democracy is not exempt from the DNA of the state. Murray Rothbard in his essay, “Anatomy of the State,” wrote of how states preserve their power with a number of tools, most notably an alliance with “intellectuals.” In return for power and positions, the “intellectuals” work diligently to persuade “the majority” that “their government is good, wise and, at least, inevitable.”

To think that the swamp was actually created recently is a fallacy as much as expecting Donald Trump to drain this swamp. Ain’t happening, ever. His very position depends on the existence of the swamp, both those in official government position as well as in and around the deep state including a subset of the elite.

It did not take long after the American Revolution to see that lies, damned lies and statistics were to be at the core of the general government and subsequently into the state governments (especially after Lincoln violently reacted to even the thought of state’s rights) and beyond.

One of the first major liars on the scene was Alexander Hamilton. Suck a duplicitous liar Hamilton was in that he could speak out of both sides of his mouth, saying one thing in his Federalist Papers essays, and then spending the rest of his life doing exactly the opposite.  He defended states’ rights and federalism in these essays but when pressed by Jefferson and Madison, he “would often backtrack and advance positions he favored during the Philadelphia Convention, namely for a supreme central authority with virtually unlimited power, particularly for the executive branch.”  This was “the real Hamilton,” who “made a habit of lying when the need arose.”

It was Hamilton who first spread the outrageous, ahistorical lie that the states were never sovereign and that the Constitution was somehow ratified by “the whole people” and not by state conventions, as required by Article 7 of the Constitution itself.  It was Hamilton who John C. Calhoun must have been thinking about when he warned of “intellectuals” reinterpreting the constitution in a way that would essentially destroy it.  Hamilton’s lifelong goal was to subjugate the citizens of the states to the central government and render the states irrelevant and powerless.  The most Hamiltonian of all presidents, Abraham Lincoln, finally achieved this goal.

So it must be of no surprise that the wars of 1812, Mexican-American War in the 1840s, the so-called, mis-named Civil War of the 1860s, the American Indian wars, the Spanish-American War, WWI, WWII were ALL started based on lies by the US government. So much for the Greatest Generation who I refer to as their actual designation, the Silent Generation, as they did little to investigate the lies that catapulted the US into a two front war that distracted the public enough about US government failure to engineer a recovery from the Great Depression. Especially damning was the economic manipulation FDR orchestrated against Japan the year before Pearl Harbor and the fact that his administration was well aware of the Japanese fleet’s route to Pearl but decided to keep the US Navy in Hawaii in the dark. So much for that “surprise”.

We all should be aware of the lies since the close of WWII (the damned lie that the US had to have “unconditional surrender of Japan”, that only allowed the US government a live experiment of what nuclear weapons could do on two Japanese civilian population centers, and then settle for the same terms Japan offered in May 1945). The lies about the Korean War (our bombing of dams in North Korea causing so many innocent deaths will not be soon forgotten, can you blame them for retaining nuclear weapons?). The lies about Vietnam (yes, the Gulf of Tonkin incident that changed the course of that war under LBJ was made up), about Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and Syria all point to a major character flaw in the US government. Topping all this was the revelation by the hero Edward Snowden that the US government was indeed spying on all its citizens, capturing not just meta-data but actually phone, e-mail, text communications for the past two decades.

So now that we have the context, let us look briefly into the whole Iran thing. Historically, it must be noted that in 1953, the CIA actually assassinated the democratically elected president of Iran, a secular nationalist, Mohammad Mossadegh, the elected leader of the Majlis, Iran’s parliament. Operation Ajax was conceived by MI6, the UK’s foreign spy agency, and the CIA would organize the coup. Kermit Roosevelt, a grandson of former US President Teddy Roosevelt, was the CIA officer in charge.  Like North Korea, damned lies like this will be hard to be forgotten for generations of Iranians!

It should also be noted that in the late 1970s, many Iranians were students of mine in electronics classes in the US Navy. These are an honorable people with a rich heritage. I believe those who doubt this can watch this Rick Steve’s documentary accomplished five years ago about the Iranian people:

Fast forward to 2019. Moon of Alabama paints the near-term context:

In early May 2018 U.S. President Trump broke the nuclear deal with Iran and sanctioned all trade with that country. Iran reacted cautiously. It hoped that the other signatories of the nuclear deal would stick to their promises and continue to trade with it. The year since proved that such expectations were wrong.

Under threat of U.S. sanctions the European partners stopped buying Iranian oil and also ended their exports to it. The new financial instrument that was supposed to allow payments between European countries and Iran has still not been implemented. It is also a weak construct and will have too little capacity to make significant trade possible. Russia and China each have their own problems with the United States. They do not support trade with Iran when it endangers their other interests.

Meanwhile the Trump administration increased the pressure on Iran. It removed waivers it had given to some countries to buy Iranian oil. It designated a part of the Iranian armed forces, the Revolutionary Guard Corp (ICRG), as a terrorist entity. On Friday it sanctioned Iran’s biggest producer of petrochemical products because that company is alleged to have relations with the ICRG.

Why? Regime change is the M.O. (modus operandi) of the US Empire. It matters not the lives this endeavor may cost, Trump, his cabinet, his and his cabinet’s kids will not show up in any casualty lists, neither will war-hawks like Obama, Hillary, and others who happen to wear a “D” on their suits and pantsuits instead of an “R”. I am sure, the agenda is the same as in 1953 except for getting the United Kingdom what they wanted, Iranian oil, now the US Empire is accomplishing this on behalf of Israel, the empire’s new buddy and will satisfy Saudi Arabia as well.

How does a nation without nuclear weapons (in a proverbial “gun-free”zone) stay independent? History shows that when Libya gave up their nuclear ambitions, it is then when they were regime-changed. However, its actions to date are very honorable (especially if you compare their actions to that of the USA!):

The strategic patience Iran demonstrated throughout the year since Trump killed the deal brought no result. Trump will stay in power, probably for another five and a half years, while Iran’s economic situation continuous to get worse. The situation requires a strategic reorientation and the adoption of a new plan to counter U.S. pressure.

I am impressed by Iran’s response to this pressure from a global bully. It would be interesting to see how many parallels this effort has with Russia and even China as the US Empire threatens any nation that refuses to bow down to American Exceptionalism with sanctions and tariffs. From a Middle East Policy expert, Elijah J. Magnier, we see this four point plan outlined:

  • The first step suggested by Sayyed Ali Khamenei is for Iran to develop its resources and reduce imports to a minimum level in the years to come. Iran’s imports range from 40 to 65 billion dollars a year (in 2010, Iranian imports reached $65.4 billion while in 2017, they amounted to $51.6 billion). These imports are mainly related to machinery, computers and phone system devices, pharmaceuticals and medical instruments, electrical machinery, wheat, cereals and corn, rice and soya beans, transport vehicles, iron and flat-rolled steel, and organic chemicals.
  • The second recommendation is for Iran to behave on the premise that it has no loyal and established friends. The Leader of the revolution indicated that relationships with countries should be based on mutual interest rather than strategically established. Iran should count on its capabilities to defend its existence and continuity, without isolating itself. Countries may stand with Iran for their common benefit and interest, but such alliances should be considered related to circumstances and opportunities rather than taken for granted.
  • The third recommendation would be to ease domestic pressure on all political parties, including reformers (Mehdi karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Zahra Rahnavard). The Iranian leadership considers national unity of paramount importance in this period of crisis that may last for another five years if Donald Trump is re-elected. Moreover, Iran has taken a unified stand against US sanctions; moderates such as President Hassan Rouhani and his Foreign Minister Jawad Zarif have adopted hard-line positions, similar to those of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.
  • The Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s fourth recommendation is that Iran relies much less on oil export revenues in the future. Iran’s annual crude petroleum shipments are worth 21 to 27 billion dollars, representing 4.3% of the world market share. The Iranian leader suggested increasing and diversifying other domestic products Iran could export, mainly but not exclusively to neighbouring countries. This measure is meant to lessen the effect of US sanctions on Iranian energy exports, in place not only under the Trump administration but also under previous US administrations throughout the life of the “Islamic Revolution” (1979).

I also wonder how the US’s “founding fathers” might have also approached this same strategy in its battle against the British Empire and its King George from 1775 – 1783.

Beyond this four-point plan, there is another shift happening:

Trump continues to call for negotiations with Iran but he can accept nothing but a total capitulation. Trump also proved that the U.S. does not stick to the agreements it makes. There is therefore no hope for Iran to achieve anything through negotiations. There is only one way to counter Trump’s maximum pressure campaign and that is by putting maximum pressure on him.

Neither Washington, nor the anti-Iranian countries in the Middle East, nor the other nuclear deal signers have so far paid a price for their hostile acts against Iran. That will now change.

Marine Traffic – Oil Tanker ONLY

Iran’s coast and reach can have a huge impact on the oil business

Iran will move against the interests of the U.S., Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. It will do so in deniable form to give the U.S. and others no opening for taking military actions against it. Iran has friends in various countries in the Middle East who will support it with their own capabilities. The campaign Iran now launches will also create severe damage for other countries.

In the last 30 days we have seen the shift start as “things” start to happen in the oil shipping channel, is this coincidence or is that part of a strategy either by MI6/Mossad/CIA or by Iranian forces?

In mid May 2019, one year after Trump destroyed the nuclear deal, a demonstration of capabilities damaged four tankers which anchored near Fujairah in the UAE. There was no evidence to blame the attack on Iran. The incident was a warning. But the U.S. ignored it and increased the sanction pressure on Iran.

Yesterday two tankers with petrochemical products were attacked while crossing the Gulf of Oman. Coming only a few days after Trump sanctioned Iran’s petrochemical exports points to Iran’s involvement. But again no evidence was left in place to blame the incident on Iran.

Early reports seem to indicate drone use in the latest attacks:

Meanwhile the owner of the Kokuka Courageous, one of the stricken ships, said that the damage to its ship was not caused by mines but by drones:

Two “flying objects” damaged a Japanese tanker owned by Kokuka Sangyo Co in an attack on Thursday in the Gulf of Oman, but there was no damage to the cargo of methanol, the company president said on Friday.
…
“The crew told us something came flying at the ship, and they found a hole,” Katada said. “Then some crew witnessed the second shot.”

Drones also are the M.O. of the US Empire. Ask anyone in the Middle East! I do not rule out Iranian involvement, but they know that any Iranian fingerprint would be dealt with swiftly.

At the US Empire’s core, there seems to be an alliance of disgusting personalities. Iran’s leadership is very aware of this team they call the “B-team”:

Javad Zarif @JZarif – 12:11 UTC – 14 Jun 2019

That the US immediately jumped to make allegations against Iran—w/o a shred of factual or circumstantial evidence—only makes it abundantly clear that the #B_Team is moving to a #PlanB: Sabotage diplomacy—including by @AbeShinzo—and cover up its #EconomicTerrorism against Iran.

I warned of exactly this scenario a few months ago, not because I’m clairvoyant, but because I recognize where the #B_Team is coming from.

Moon of Alabama goes on to call out these war-jockeys:

The “B-team” includes Trump’s National Security Advisor John Bolton, Israel’s Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahoo, Mohammad bin Salman of Saudi Arabia and Mohammed bin Zayed of the UAE.

So the focus that was on Syria from this alliance has now shifted to Iran yet again as it seems that Russia has subtly been able to shore up Venezuela for the time being.

The deep state is looking for a war, it needs war profits (in addition to the drug trade) to continue it existence, and at some point in the future, it will follow-through on something, somewhere.

So sad. So sick.

The sad truth remains, as Edward Snowden, Julian Assange and Chelsea Manning are all well aware:

Politics is indeed the poison that honorable people must reject outright. The problem is in a democracy, “the people” are given the “political power” (in principle only) to get what they want. Dividing people into groups while inciting violence from time to time tends to keep our eyes off the most evil element of our society, our tyrannical and narcissistic governments.

Expect the lies, damned lies (and statistics) to continue.

Matthew 24:6 (Bible)

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come.

-SF1

The Ocean Can Be Dangerous: Do We Need Roundabouts for the US 7th Fleet?

USS Fitzgerald – post collision with container vessel (2017)

It is bad enough that nature can bring on a typhoon or hurricane to bear on all who travel the oceans. Being a US Navy vet, I have fond memories of life out on the ocean so blue. However, there seems to be an element of danger in these waters that few landlubbers can’t relate to except on the road. It is the landlubber’s version of a distracted driver, a ship that is inattentive to its own course, speed and surroundings. Lately, this has been a repetitive issue for the US Navy 7th Fleet home-ported out of Yokosuka, Japan.

Back in 2017, the Washington Post lamented that maybe this was a case of a force stretched too thin. While this is a convenient cover story where an admiral that is ready to retire is forced out a few months early is enough to make the taxpayers believe justice was done. It turns out in the case of the USS Fitzgerald, that both the OOD (Officer of the Deck) and the CIC (Combat Information Center) officer were having a “spat”.  The CIC officer, in retaliation, turned off the radar allowing the situation where the ship hit a huge container vessel that anyone’s grandmother could have seen on the radar. A spat is not typical of what you have on navy ships mind you, at least when I was there in the 70s and 80s. Maybe it has to do with the fact that these were women officers on the USS Fitzgerald? (Yes I said that, the sexes are indeed different, but this is not a label that applies 100% across the board. I have seen my share of male passive-aggressive “spats” and they ain’t pretty nor are they masculine)

But I digress, so yesterday it was reported by the US Navy via CNN that:

“A Russian destroyer …. made an unsafe maneuver against USS Chancellorsville, closing to 50-100 feet, putting the safety of her crew and ship at risk,” US Navy spokesman Cmdr. Clayton Doss told CNN in a statement.

“This unsafe action forced Chancellorsville to execute all engines back full and to maneuver to avoid collision,” Doss said.

The US guided-missile cruiser was traveling in a straight line and trying to recover its helicopter when the incident occurred, he said. “We consider Russia’s actions during this interaction as unsafe and unprofessional,” Doss said.

Did anyone have an iPhone handy? Because you know, these days especially, it is helpful to have a video since the people talking only lie when their mouths are open.

OK, that video is too late to show what really happened. It also helps to know the “rules of the road” (‘Handbook of Nautical Rules #15) out on the ocean:

(#15) When two power-driven vessels are crossing so as to involve risk of collision, the vessel which has the other on her own starboard side shall keep out of the way and shall, if the circumstances admit, avoid crossing ahead of the other vessel.

Which ship has has the other ship on their starboard (right) side? Yeah, you guessed it, the USS Chancellorsville out of Yokosuka, Japan, home-port for the US Navy 7th Fleet. Home of the “asleep at the wheel” Officer of the Deck because you can’t blame the helmsman as they are only allowed to accomplish speed and course changes that the OOD commands. I have been there and done that.

Furthermore, rules 16 and 17 make this all clear:

(#16) Every vessel which is directed to keep out of the way of another vessel shall, so far as possible, take early and substantial action to keep well clear.

 

(#17) Where one of two vessels is to keep out of the way the other shall keep her course and speed.

So what happened BEFORE the video above? I will settle for a picture that shows the wake!

Moon of Alabama does a great job of putting it all in perspective as always:

It is evident from the picture that the U.S. navy cruiser had the Russian destroyer on its starboard side and that both ships were on a collision course. It was therefore the U.S. ship that had the duty to ‘take early and substantial action’ to keep out of the way and that it had to avoid crossing ahead of the Russian vessel. The Russian ship correctly kept its speed and course until the situation required a last-minute maneuver to avoid an imminent collision.

The US ship did NOTHING, just like the USS Fitzgerald did nothing before hitting that container ship two years ago!

Roundabouts in the ocean might help, but at the end of the day, you can’t fix stupid. All one can do is insure justice is served if a collision happens and that there are appropriate compensation awarded to the offended party.

I really do not think that the 2019 US Navy is up to task for what Trump would like to accomplish across this globe (to make America great?), to be able to antagonize the Chinese and Russian fleets just as he antagonizes them with trade wars. In this regard, he is very GOP (Grand Old Party – Republican Political Party USA) and very Lincoln. Like Lincoln, he has a YUGE navy and a YUGE defense budget to blow while he attempts to overwhelm the “enemy” by sheer numbers instead of finesse or strategy. He will do ANYTHING to get his tariff revenue. Pure Lincoln.

Look for more of this in the future, pretty soon, like in 1864 when the numbers killed under Grant are released weekly (tens of thousands dead), the public will be inoculated to this ineptitude and just desire that the war be over while shielding their eyes from truth.

-SF1

2019: Is This Anything Like 1929? Same Thing, Only Different!

With history disappearing before our eyes (note the latest purge from You Tube of history lessons related to Nazi Germany and Hitler because – “Hate Speech”), it probably good to remember what your grandparents, or great grandparents said about the Great Depression. Possibly, you have only learned this from a history teacher, or from history books .. or, maybe you are unaware of what happened in 1929 that rippled out from the United States to the rest of the world.

However, history repeating itself has been a saying for a long time, but is it actually true? Sometimes it does, but it seems that there is a little different spin on it in every age. As a wise man said years ago:

What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun.

Context does matter, but this does not mean we can’t learn from history, we just have to be smart about it. We have to be able to discern those “red flags” and take appropriate action to be prepared.

So when I read this post from Doug Casey I thought to myself, ‘this is why so many people don’t get it’ .. it is because there are certain things that don’t add up. What can make the Stock Market go up on bad news when in 1929 it went down on bad news. This is where we need to consider a few things without drawing our conclusion too soon.

Doug’s examples up front help set the tone:

During the American Revolution, the British came prepared to fight a successful war—but against a European army. Their formations, which gave them devastating firepower, and their red coats, which emphasized their numbers, proved the exact opposite of the tactics needed to fight a guerrilla war.

OK, so what worked in the past, did not work on the American continent. Next:

Before World War II, in anticipation of a German attack, the French built the “impenetrable” Maginot Line. History repeated itself and the attack came, but not in the way they expected. Their preparations were useless because the Germans didn’t attempt to penetrate it; they simply went around it, and France was defeated.

OK. Same thing .. only different. Now on to economics:

Investors, unfortunately, seem to make the same mistakes in marshaling their resources as do the generals. If the last 30 years have been prosperous, they base their actions on more prosperity. Talk of a depression isn’t real to them because things are, in fact, so different from the 1930s. To most people, a depression means ’30s-style conditions, and since they don’t see that, they can’t imagine a depression. That’s because they know what the last depression was like, but they don’t know what one is. It’s hard to visualize something you don’t understand.

True. We saw this before the last bubble ..

This brings me to another post, also put out today by my favorite independent financial guy who has a heart for the world, Jesse Colombo. His frustration is that most people conclude that he is sayin’ the sky is falling over and over again:

I have been criticized literally thousands of times as the stock market surges year after year and the economy continues to grow. The criticisms typically take the form of “you’ve been warning about bubbles for years – you’re a broken clock!,” “you’re a permabear!,” and “you’ve been missing out on tons of profits!” I’ve heard every criticism in the book and I’m completely unfazed by them because those criticisms are based on misunderstandings of my approach and because I know that my analyses are correct.

He was correct about the 2008 bubble, and his stats show that we are on a similar path since there has been nothing else the Federal Reserve can do but QE (Quantitative Easing) all over again as it is the last card they hold.

Jesse’s message is two-fold, and that is where many get confused. On the one hand is his message to the average person (get your own financial house in order) and on the other hand his message to investors is different:

I am able to separate anti-economic bubble activism from tactical trading and investing. I am fully aware that shorting a bubble too early (such as when I make my warnings) would completely wipe out any trader who is foolish enough to do so. Furthermore, I have publicly stated for years that I believe in “trading with the trend and not against it,” which is an approach that helps economic skeptics like myself avoid the bad outcomes experienced by typical “permabears” who are short all the time.

Back to Doug Casey for a moment. What can we learn about the 1930’s Depression that needs to be adapted to today’s situation?

First, we need to understand the foundational difference between then and now in the financial world when it comes to businesses and their relationship to the federal government:

1930s

Banks, insurance companies, and big corporations went under on a major scale. Institutions suffered the consequences of past mistakes, and there was no financial safety net to catch them as they fell. Mistakes were liquidated and only the prepared and efficient survived.

Today

The world’s financial institutions are in even worse shape than the last time, but now business ethics have changed and everyone expects the government to “step in.” Laws are already in place that not only allow but require government inter­vention in many instances. This time, mistakes will be compounded, and the strong, productive, and ef­ficient will be forced to subsidize the weak, unproductive, and inefficient. It’s ironic that businesses were bankrupted in the last depression because the prices of their products fell too low; this time, it’ll be because they went too high.

You catch that? No deflation, but inflation, because of government interference in the “free” market.

But wait, there’s more:

UNEMPLOYMENT

1930s

If a man lost his job, he had to find another one as quickly as possible simply to keep from going hungry. A lot of other men in the same position competed desperately for what work was available, and an employer could hire those same men for much lower wages and expect them to work harder than what was the case before the depression. As a result, the men could get jobs and the employer could stay in business.

Today

The average man first has months of unemployment insurance; after that, he can go on welfare if he can’t find “suitable work.” Instead of taking whatever work is available, especially if it means that a white collar worker has to get his hands dirty, many will go on welfare. This will decrease the production of new wealth and delay the recovery. The worker no longer has to worry about some entrepreneur exploiting (i.e., employing) him at what he considers an unfair wage because the minimum wage laws, among others, precludes that possibility today. As a result, men stay unemployed and employers will go out of business.

Wait, you get that? Lowest unemployment statistics in years, so the economy MUST be buzzing. Hogwash!

WELFARE

1930s

If hard times really put a man down and out, he had little recourse but to rely on his family, friends, or local social and church group. There was quite a bit of opprobrium attached to that, and it was only a last resort. The breadlines set up by various government bodies were largely cosmetic measures to soothe the more terror-prone among the voting populace. People made do because they had to, and that meant radically reducing their standards of living and taking any job available at any wage. There were very, very few people on welfare during the last depression.

Today

It’s hard to say how those who are still working are going to support those who aren’t in this depression. Even in the U.S., 50% of the country is already on some form of welfare. But food stamps, aid to fami­lies with dependent children, Social Security, and local programs are already collapsing in prosperous times. And when the tidal wave hits, they’ll be totally overwhelmed. There aren’t going to be any breadlines because people who would be standing in them are going to be shopping in local supermarkets just like people who earned their money. Perhaps the most dangerous aspect of it is that people in general have come to think that these programs can just magically make wealth appear, and they expect them to be there, while a whole class of people have grown up never learning to survive without them. It’s ironic, yet predictable, that the programs that were supposed to help those who “need” them will serve to devastate those very people.

So what happened in 1865 when the slaves were free? They were UNPREPARED for real life. Ditto here with all the social programs that have made so many dependent on the Nanny State. This will not end well.

There are many more examples, but one more before I conclude:

THE FINANCIAL MARKETS

1930s

The last depression is identified with the collapse of the stock market, which lost over 90% of its value from 1929 to 1933. A secure bond was the best possible investment as interest rates dropped radically. Commodities plummeted, reducing millions of farmers to near subsistence levels. Since most real estate was owned outright and taxes were low, a drop in price didn’t make a lot of difference unless you had to sell. Land prices plummeted, but since people bought it to use, not unload to a greater fool, they didn’t usually have to sell.

Today

This time, stocks—and especially commodities—are likely to explode on the upside as people panic into them to get out of depreciating dollars in general and bonds in particular. Real estate will be—next to bonds—the most devastated single area of the economy because no one will lend money long term. And real estate is built on the mortgage market, which will vanish.

Everybody who invests in this depression thinking that it will turn out like the last one will be very unhappy with the results. Being aware of the differences between the last depression and this one makes it a lot easier to position yourself to minimize losses and maximize profits.

So much for the differences. The crucial, obvious, and most important similarity, however, is that most people’s standard of living will fall dramatically.

Ouch! Didn’t see that coming right?

So when Jesse’s stats show this:

You have to see the difference. Look at that Federal Debt level. We have built the largest military on the planet, probably in the hopes that the elite can remain safe under its protection in the years to come.

Sorry for all the Friday “Debbie Downer” news, but this was too important not to share.

Your mileage may vary

-SF1