Shale, Oil, Petro-Dollar and More – US Empire’s Strategic Future

In the grand scheme of things, and politicians and their masters, the elites, are always scheming, one has to wonder about the trajectory of the confederated united States of America (former British colonies in North America) –> United States of America (the republic) –> United States of America (the centralized federal government from Lincoln’s policies) –> the United States of America (democracy that embraced via 16th and 17th amendments to the US Constitution both federal income (direct) taxes on the people as well as popular election of senators vs. state appointed PLUS social security, the original welfare program and FDR’s decision to leave the gold standard) –> the US Empire that emerged post WWII that replaced the British Empire. Debts were still being paid by the nations that fought WWI and the Marshall Plan meant even more debt was to be incurred as a result of WWII for the US:

The UK/US effort with Middle East oil started in the late 1940s and early 1950s made it clear that the US imperialism was to be more covert and economic than the British effort. The CIA’s assassination of Iranian prime minister in 1953 signaled to the region that the US was dead serious about maintain control of oil production in the region to the US’s benefit.

By the 1970s, after the US totally severed all ties with the gold standard in 1971 under Nixon and his short-term efforts to deal with more war debt, this time from the Vietnam War, Henry Kissinger setup the petro-dollar system to enable the US to incur even more debt than ever before as an article from Southfront’s Dr. Leon Tressell points out:

The Petro-dollar system set up by Kissinger in the 1970s underpins the American control of the global trading system and allows it to maintain a massively over bloated military the scale of which the world has not seen since World War 2.

With this backdrop that articulates an empire’s trajectory, from federated sovereign states to a global superpower empire, one can only wonder how long the US can fake it until it makes it time and again before the petro-dollar magic wears off.

To help unpack what is really happening in the oil world, one has to understand the initial promises of shale, the technology that allowed both Obama and Trump to brag that the US is now a net exporter of oil production and to leverage this “bubble” (no pun intended) to strong arm other nations not on the US Empire’s dependents list.

President Trump’s abandonment of the Iran nuclear deal and reimposition of sanctions on Tehran was based on the premise that the drop in Iranian oil exports would be made up for by U.S. shale oil production. Thus keeping down any inflationary pressures on the global oil market.

While Iran is definitely in the empire’s crosshairs, so is Russia:

Trump has also used the stick to force Europe away from Russian gas supplies. Under the terms of the misnamed ‘Protecting Europe’s Energy Security Act of 2019, a sanctions law ironically written by oil and gas rich Texas Senator Ted Cruz,the U.S. has threatened EU countries with sanctions if they participate in helping with the construction of Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline under the Baltic sea.

The world’s bully continues to play cards like it has a full house, but it may be bluffing:

The EIA 2020 forecast is for shale oil production to peak in 2022 at 14 million barrels per day and continue at that level until 2050. The vast majority of this oil production is expected to come from the shale oil pays in just 3 states: Texas, New Mexico and North Dakota. The bulk of this oil production is expected to come from the world’s largest oil field in the Permian basin that runs across Texas and New Mexico.

There is the bluff. The US is treating shale like oil, and they are not the same. In the first half of the 1900s, oil wells put in place in this time-frame STILL makeup 50% of the global oil market. Shale is proving to have a much different curve:

The problem oil companies face is that the decline rate of shale oil wells are frighteningly rapid at a rate of 70% in the first year and 30% in the second year of operation. This means they have to keep pumping and drilling new wells like mad to just to keep up production levels.

Sounds like the EIA forecast may have been some “fake news”. Not cool.

Of greater concern are the reports warning that the Permian basin, the jewel in the crown of America’s fracking industry, is approaching peak production.

In 2018 Paul Kibsgaard CEO of Schlumberger, one of the oil industry’s largest service provider, warned, “We are already starting to see a similar reduction in unit well productivity to that already seen in the Eagle Ford, suggesting that the Permian growth potential could be lower than earlier expected.”

A respected scientist took the EIA projects and offered his own report:

David Hughes, a scientist who worked for 32 years with the Canadian Geological Survey, has carried out an exhaustive analysis of the EIA claims for U.S. shale production up to 2050. His 177 page report SHALE REALITY CHECK 2019 Drilling into the U.S. Government’s Optimistic Forecasts for Shale Gas & Tight Oil Production Through 2050 concludes that EIA forecasts through 2050 are,’extremely optimistic for the most part, and are therefore highly unlikely to be realized.’

This is not good news. This is the type of news the media will bury and the US government will ignore.

Maybe this is the reason Trump refuses to leave Syria’s eastern oil fields, or Iraq. Maybe this is why Trumps economic sanctions target Iran and Venezuela?

Oil production from countries that Washington designates as enemies, such as Russia, Iran and Venezuela, will increase in importance on the global market as U.S. shale oil production starts to decline. This will give greater power and influence to OPEC and Russia when it comes to determining oil prices through production cuts/increases.

Maybe this is also why Trump has actually stepped up the Middle East warfare, buy dropping more bombs per day than O-bomb-a and taking the additional aggressive step of threatening assassination of Iraqi politicians that might strike new deals with China for Iraqi oil:

Nations from Iraq to Saudi Arabia are developing trade and infrastructure relations with China which the United States takes strong exception to. Take for example, the recent bombshell admission by Iraq’s caretaker Prime Minister that Trump threatened him with assassination if Iraq proceeds with an oil for infrastructure project with China. In the first phase of this deal Iraq will send 100,00 barrels of oil to China in return for a $10 billion credit. China would finish the building of the country’s electricity grid and other major infrastructure projects including its vital oil and gas sector.

A desperate empire/bully is no fun to be around, as someone is going to get hurt economically or with low yield nukes that are being placed on US Navy submarines.

Dr. Tressell wraps up by stating:

As U.S. shale oil production declines it will seek to maintain control over the regions oil production. China’s desire for growing amounts of Middle Eastern oil will intensify this clash for resources, influence and power in the region. Thus leading to greater geo-political and economic conflict.

So basically, for three decades, since the Cold War with the USSR ended, the USA has destabilized the Middle East, and now, blow-back will be a real thing and not just a CIA projection. The War of Terror costing $6T may have spawned a new season of global conflict.

So the US is in a “pre-War” period and we are already $23T(2020) in debt, usually all that debt piles up AFTER a war. This can’t end well especially if the petro-dollar status slips away.

So now what?

“… Jesus then left the Temple. As he walked away, his disciples pointed out how very impressive the Temple architecture was. Jesus said, “You’re not impressed by all this sheer size, are you? The truth of the matter is that there’s not a stone in that building that is not going to end up in a pile of rubble.” Later as he was sitting on Mount Olives, his disciples approached and asked him, “Tell us, when are these things going to happen? What will be the sign of your coming, that the time’s up?” Jesus said, “Watch out for doomsday deceivers. Many leaders are going to show up with forged identities, claiming, ‘I am Christ, the Messiah.’ They will deceive a lot of people. When reports come in of wars and rumored wars, keep your head and don’t panic. This is routine history; this is no sign of the end. Nation will fight nation and ruler fight ruler, over and over. Famines and earthquakes will occur in various places. This is nothing compared to what is coming…” – The Bible (The Message paraphrase) – Matthew 24:1-8

This might be another world war, or this might be a more final clash ..

“.. Staying with it—that’s what God requires. Stay with it to the end. You won’t be sorry, and you’ll be saved. All during this time, the good news—the Message of the kingdom—will be preached all over the world, a witness staked out in every country. And then the end will come…” The Bible (The Message paraphrase) – Matthew 24:13,14

One day at a time people .. stay the course!

-SF1

Trajectory of the State: What Happens When Statists Overplay their Hand?

It has been a good run for state worshipers. The 1800s gave more and more people the belief that the state could bring about a good utopia for all to enjoy. (Outside those who saw peril in the state, like those in the most southern seven US states in the “deep south” in 1860 and 1861)

By the end of the 1800s it seemed that the progressive movement was about to birth and bring about a century of peace. However, WWI and WWI PLUS all the genocides of the 20th century meant millions died during as well as outside of official wars.

By the end of the 20th century we saw two collectivist Communist states morph in various ways towards entities that pay more attention to well-being of the taxpayers. Russia emerged out of a God-less era to embrace family and Christianity in the 20th century. China backed off on the underground Church (that was thriving under persecution) to a degree where this is tolerated in this Communism version 2.X coupled with quite a capitalist friendly environment where regulations are minimized that allow entrepreneurship to thrive. While these states are not perfect, it does appear they have learned the lessons of the 20th century.

This brings us to the US state complex that is exceptional enough that it still believes there are no lessons to learn. However, if Lew Rockwell’s post “Working Around Leviathan” predictions are true, their days are numbered as they get less and less relevant in society as technology advances so much faster than the state can digest it.

Lew does a great job at balancing the forces at work in 2020, where he compares the US state apparatus:

Never before has a government in human history owned more weapons of mass destruction, looted as much wealth from a country, or assumed unto itself the power to regulate the minutiae of daily life as much as this one. By comparison to the overgrown behemoth in Washington, with its printing press to crank out money for the world and its annual $2.2 trillion dollars in largesse to toss at adoring crowds, even communist states were powerless paupers.

.. to the private commercial/business side:

At the same time — and here is the paradox — the United States is overall the wealthiest society in the history of the world. The World Bank lists Luxembourg, Switzerland, and Norway as competitive in this regard, but the statistics don’t take into account the challenges to mass wealth that exist in the US relative to small, homogenous states such as its closest competitors. In the United States, more people from more classes and geographic regions have access to more goods and services at prices they can afford, and possess the disposable income and access to credit to put them to use, than any other time in history. Truly we live in the age of extreme abundance.

Some will claim it is the government’s role that has made especially large corporations most successful and should receive credit for all they do. However, Lew is quick to point out a disclaimer to that effect, but not before sharing what both the so-called “right” and so-called “left” tend to think:

It seems that people on the right and left are quick to confuse correlation with causation. They believe that the US is wealthy because the government is big and expansive. This error is probably the most common of all errors in political economy. It is just assumed that buildings are safe because of building codes, that stock markets are not dens of thieves because of the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission), that the elderly don’t starve and die because of Social Security, and so on, all the way to concluding that we should credit big government for American wealth.

I do hope you chuckled as you read this. Only those in DC would take this seriously, most of the rest of us recognize sarcasm.

If we are looking for those that create value and wealth, do we think of government? Does on think of Obamacare, Amtrak or the United States Postal Service?

Government is not productive. It has no wealth of its own. All it acquires it must take from the private sector. You might believe that it is necessary and you might believe it does great good, but we must grant that it does not have the ability to produce wealth in the way the market does.

If you understand economics, or if you have ever spent time in a monopoly, you will find that they do not have any good feedback loop that helps them indicate what the market needs. Government is even more handicapped since no one in their bureaucracy is ever accountable for government action or inaction. They simply have no skin in the game and do not see the taxpayers as customers:

Economic law limits what the state can do. The state cannot raise wages for everyone. It cannot dampen prices that want to rise without causing shortages, or increase prices that want to fall without causing surpluses. It cannot predict the course of markets or human events. It can control surprisingly few forces that work in the world.

In all its central planning, government is forever declaring the major combat operations are over, whether in foreign or domestic policy, only to discover that its real struggles and battles last and last. A good example is in the area of foreign trade. If a good or service is more efficiently produced abroad, the logic of the market will reassign production patterns until they conform. An attempt to protect domestic industry can do nothing to change this reality. Instead, protection only increases prices for consumers, subsidizes inefficient firms, and brings about ever-increasing amounts of wasted time, work, and resources.

On the other hand are those that seek to truly bring value to the market and are rewarded with wealth that can be placed into capital improvements that can make the business even more productive, efficient and even adaptable to the changing market. This was seen by the 1700 and 1800 farmers all the way to the manufacturers of the 1800s that could accomplish this all without government involvement.

Lasting prosperity can only come about through human effort in the framework of a market economy that allows people to cooperate to their mutual advantage, innovate and invest in an environment of freedom, retain earnings as private property, and save generation to generation without fear of having estates looted through taxation and inflation. This is the source of wealth. This is the means by which a rising population is fed, clothed, and housed. This is the method by which even the poorest country can become rich.

I will only add one more quote and if you are interested, please read all of Lew’s words that at least to me, give hope for the generations to come:

But here I would like to concentrate on what I think is an explanation that is too often overlooked. It requires that we understand something about the extraordinary capacity of the human mind to overcome obstacles put in its path. In all the history of states and the history of reflection on social organization and economics, this component is the most underestimated because it is the least predictable and the most difficult to comprehend. Human beings are creative and determined, and, if they have a love of liberty, and cooperate through exchange, they can overcome seemingly impassable obstacles.

It is because of this power of human ingenuity and determination to improve the world around us, despite the state, that a vast gulf has come to separate the accumulated power of the nation-state from its effective power in the management and guidance of society and the world economy.

Yes, despite the state, human ingenuity can improve the world, as well as its parallel, despite religion, humans with God’s help and hope, can improve the world in loving those around them.

Praying that the future does see the archaic state fall by the wayside and that grassroots communities with free trade on a global basis can improve the lives of those all over the world.

One can dream can’t they?

Acts 2:17

Your sons and your daughters will prophesy, your young men will see visions, and your old men will dream dreams.

-SF1

Traits of an Empire: Rarely if Ever Honorable

From my last post lamenting the benefits of small nations or federations of small republics and city-states, it became rather obvious that the formation of the Articles of Confederation which linked thirteen colonies together to fight against the British Empire was a noble effort, and that Switzerland decided early on to retain this focus unlike the United States:

After the revolutionary war, many founders abandoned the Swiss model as being too week and opted again towards the large-state model..

In today’s post, I use primarily an article from Darius Shahtahmasebi that explains the impact that many of the US Empire’s wars have had on Muslims over time. Darius does a great job of balancing the fact that it is not that the Muslims were targeted, but like the American Indians, it has more to do with the content their lands have for potential empire resources or disruptions in trade routes.

There are then several phases of the US Empire’s history that I hope to unpack today as a lesson we can all learn from so we can better understand the true character of the empire’s endeavors.

The first phase happened when the united States, having been victorious in its quest for independence from the British Empire, was potentially left unprotected in world trade. The source I chose for this was an article that helps to identify what really might have gone town in the tension between the US (which many consider to be a Christian nation) and the Barbary Powers (that happened to be primarily Muslim in religious terms). The truth is that these Barbary ‘corsairs’ were not only Muslim but also included English privateers and Dutch captains who exploited the changing loyalties of an era in which friends could become enemies and enemies friends with the stroke of a pen.

In the Barbary ‘pirate’ era, these entrepreneurs were not content with attacking ships and sailors, the corsairs also sometimes raided coastal settlements in Italy, France, Spain, Portugal, England, Ireland, and even as far away as the Netherlands and Iceland. They landed on unguarded beaches, and crept up on villages in the dark to capture their victims. This did not begin with these powers that ended up enslaving over one million Europeans, but was preceded by Christian pirates, primarily from Catalonia and Sicily, that dominated the seas, posing a constant threat to merchants in the 13th and 14th centuries.

Back to the Barbary powers of the Ottoman Empire of the 15th century:

During the era of the American colonies, American merchant vessels received protection by virtue of being of being British; the British were among the countries that paid tribute. Then, during the American Revolution, an alliance with France protected American ships. But full independence brought an end to that.

Initially, the United States decided to pay tribute. But American leaders, including Jefferson, seethed at having to do it, saying it would only inspire more and more outrageous financial demands. On July 11, 1786, Jefferson wrote to John Adams, “I very early thought it would be best to effect a peace thro’ the medium of war.” The following month, he wrote to James Monroe that the Barbary powers “must see the rod; perhaps it must be felt by some one of them.”

Jefferson truly believed that the sea trade routes should be free. However, during the George Washington and John Adams administrations, the tribute was paid as was done by all the European powers, in fact, the rift was identified as economic in nature and not seen as religious:

As early as 1797, the United States made clear in a treaty with Tripoli that “as the government of the United States of America is not in any sense founded on the Christian Religion, as it has in itself no character of enmity against the laws, religion or tranquility of Musselmen (Muslims) and as the said States never have entered into any war or act of hostility against any Mehomitan (Mohammedan or Muslim) nation, it is declared by the parties that no pretext arising from religious opinions shall ever produce an interruption of the harmony existing between the two countries.”

Once Jefferson became the US President, he decided that enough was enough:

After Jefferson became president in 1801, he rejected Tripoli’s demand for payment. The pasha of Tripoli countered by declaring war on the United States. Jefferson sent forces to the Mediterranean, and after sporadic combat, hostilities ended four years later with a negotiated settlement in which the United States paid a smaller tribute than had initially been demanded.

The era of Barbary corsairs effectively ended a decade later, when, after the U.S. Navy, battle-hardened from the War of 1812, won a quick victory against Algiers, effectively ending all tribute payments.

By 1815, after the US’s war against the British Empire, the US flexed its muscles and used force to protect US shipping going forward. Shortly after this, the US found itself in a war with Mexico in the late 1840s and by 1860, fought an attempt to split the United States into two confederations. By this time there were powerful elites who saw that the economies of scale incentivized a violent end to the effort to have an adjacent federation have in effect a free trade zone.

The trend in hindsight becomes clear as the United States, in its second phase, turns its eyes to the Plains Indians after successfully placing the South in military districts, as this article explains:

In an attempt at peace in 1851, the first Fort Laramie Treaty was signed, which granted the Plain Indians about 150 million acres of land for their own use as the Great Sioux Reservation. Then, 13 years later, the size was greatly reduced to about 60 million acres in the Fort Laramie Treaty of 1868, which recreated the Great Sioux Reservation boundaries and proclaimed all of South Dakota west of the Missouri river, including the Black Hills, solely for the Sioux Nation.

As part of the treaty, no unauthorized non-Indian was to come into the reservation and the Sioux were allowed to hunt in unceded Indian territory beyond the reservation that stretched into North Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, Nebraska, and Colorado. If any non-Indian wanted to settle on this unceded land, they could only do it with the permission of the Sioux.

That was until 1874, when gold was discovered in South Dakota’s Black Hills. The treaties that were signed between the Native Americans and the U.S. government were ignored as gold rushers invaded Indian Territory and issues arose, such as the Battle of the Little Bighorn.

As time went on, the American Indians continued to be pushed into smaller territories and their lives began to diminish. In 1889, the U.S. government issued the Dawes Act, which took the Black Hills from the Indians, broke up the Great Sioux Reservation into five separate reservations, and took nine million acres and opened it up for public purchase by non-Indians for homesteading and settlements.

The Native Americans were squeezed into these smaller territories and didn’t have enough game to support them. The bison that had been a staple to their way of life were gone. Their ancestral lands that sustained them were no longer theirs. The resistance was over. They were no longer free people, living amongst themselves, but “Redskins” confined by the “white man” in reservations they had been forced to, many against their will.

At this point, one might logically think that the US is done with its expansion as it now is in total control of all the lands from the east to the west coast of North America. However, there were plenty of elites that were very willing in their agenda for:

… capitalizing on a national tragedy to push through an unrelated agenda. The explosion of the Maine in Havana’s harbor — killing some 260 sailors — was the immediate catalyst for the invasion of Cuba and then the Philippines.

Y’all do know that the USS Maine was NOT sabotaged by the Spanish in Cuba, right?

The result was a third phase in this trend toward empire.

Again, you have a list of critical thinkers that understand the down-side of empire, called the Anti-Imperialist effort in 1898, outlined in this article:

“We hold that the policy known as imperialism is hostile to liberty and tends toward militarism, an evil from which it has been our glory to be free. We regret that it has become necessary in the land of Washington and Lincoln to reaffirm that all men, of whatever race or color, are entitled to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. We maintain that governments derive their just powers from the consent of the governed. We insist that the subjugation of any people is ‘criminal aggression’ and open disloyalty to the distinctive principles of our Government.

“We earnestly condemn the policy of the present National Administration in the Philippines. It seeks to extinguish the spirit of 1776 in those islands. We deplore the sacrifice of our soldiers and sailors, whose bravery deserves admiration even in an unjust war. We denounce the slaughter of the Filipinos as a needless horror. We protest against the extension of American sovereignty by Spanish methods…”

.. to your typical statist media b*llshit we still see today:

Today, the medium from which most Americans get their news, television, plays much the same role as the “yellow press” of William Randolph Hearst — cheerleading for war. Then, as now, the argument justifying war started as a matter of self-defense, then morphed into a war for “freedom,” and finally stood naked as a political and economic power grab

So on and on it goes, the US Empire emerges well in advance of WWII, already using shady ways to promote its power on the world’s stage.

The latest chapter is probably not that last, but the character of this empire will be remembered for generations:

U.S.-led wars in the Middle East have killed some four million Muslims since 1990. The recently published Afghanistan papers, provided an insight into the longest war in U.S. history and revealed how U.S. officials continuously lied about the progress being made in Afghanistan, lacked a basic understanding of the country, were hiding evidence that the war was unwinnable, and had wasted as much as $1 trillion in the process.

This parallels a little known previous ‘longest war’ that was initiated a century before:

.. the U.S. waged a war from 1899 to 1913 in the southernmost island of the Philippines. Known as the Moro War, it was the longest sustained military campaign in American history until the war in Afghanistan surpassed it a few years ago. As a result, the U.S. and the Philippine governments are still embroiled in a battle with Islamist insurgents in the southern Philippines, which takes the meaning of “forever war” to a whole new level

.. the U.S. military was not welcome in the Philippines, much as it is not welcomed by Afghanistan or any other Muslim-majority nation which has to duel with the U.S. Empire. After the U.S. defeated the Spanish fleet in Manila Bay and annexed the Philippines under the 1898 Treaty of Paris, the Moro population were not even consulted. The U.S. then sought to “pacify” them using brute force.

“I want no prisoners,” ordered General Jacob Smith on Samar Island during the war in 1902. “I wish you to kill and burn, the more you kill and burn the better you will please me.”

The tactics remain the same, total war from Sherman and Sheridan used in the so-called Civil War, to the war on the American Indians, to the war in the Philippines, to Afghanistan and beyond is somehow construed to be “American Exceptionalism”.

I think I am sick to my stomach.

Enough for now.

Peace out.

-SF1

Know Your Enemy: Even Jesus Did This – Religion and Empire

While Sun Tzu said:

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

Jesus said:

“Love your enemies,
Do good to them who hate you.”

But do notice, in pragmatic terms, Jesus made himself scarce around the religious elites who were out to get him and his small band. He too encouraged the selling of a cloak (coat) to purchase a sword (gun) for the disciples to use as self defense in times of crisis.

However, the truth is there as Paul notes in his letter to those in Rome:

“But if your enemy is hungry, feed him, and if he is thirsty, give him a drink; for in so doing you will heap burning coals on his head.”

Jesus too set the stage for a unique way with dealing with those out to do one harm:

Do to others whatever you would like them to do to you.

While this all sounds like life on a personal level, this also extends to relationships between communities, cultures and countries as well. I am guessing I would get booed like Ron Paul did during a GOP debate in South Carolina years ago, but I stand by it. So would Francis Marion! But I digress.

The reality is that those that choose to do good in this world will find opposition. Even back in the 1st century Paul wrote to the Thessalonians:

“For we wanted to come to you — I, Paul, more than once — and yet Satan thwarted us.”

The Roman Empire had good roads too .. so this was not an infrastructure issue, but a real one with a real adversary. There is evil in this world that makes life difficult.

So on to the core of my message here and the article and book that led me down this strange path. “The (Real) Revolution in Military Affairs” by Andrei Martyanov does a convincing job at painting an accurate picture for the state of the American Empire, which by definition is the enemy of most of the people of the world and IF we were honest, considering our erosion of privacy and freedoms, it is also an enemy of its own citizens, not unlike the USSR of its day.

This book gives an insight into the evolution of weapons and the way they influenced international relations in the 20th and 21st centuries. It also defines Revolution in Military Affairs as manifested via policy, politics, and technology. It reviews some models which are useful in assessing the current geopolitical situation. This book also tries to give a forecast of the future development of warfare and the ways in which it is going to change the whole system of international relations, hopefully towards a new geopolitical equilibrium.

Some helpful early quotes from this book will help you see the value of knowing your enemy, knowing the truth, so that y’all can be prepared.

modern war between nation-states became so complex, in reflection of the tools of such wars, that it is an axiom, not even a theorem, that people who cannot grasp fundamental mathematical, physical, tactical and operational principles on which modern weapon systems operate are simply not qualified in the minimal degree to offer their opinions on the issues of warfare, intelligence operations and military technology without appropriate backgrounds. Failing that, what can one think but that they are merely in the business of content provision (filling space/entertainment) or of propagating the official line—of propaganda, in short—mostly with regard to warmongering? In today’s information-oversaturated world of massive egos nurtured by the dopamine of public visibility and of American politics turned into showbiz, these are the types who dominate the discussion on the most important, vital issue of war and peace in our time.

This is so true, the information overload renders most people helpless in sifting through the lies to find the foundational truth. So much of media is indeed government blow-horns used to confuse and disorient the sheep on any given day making them in fact impotent.

I can only hope that the knowledge readers will gain through this book will help to increase public awareness of the deadly consequences of even a conventional war between global superpowers and will help to dispel the war propaganda being pushed on the public by ignorant and incompetent pundits who have no business offering even an iota of their opinions on what is today a Revolution in Military Affairs of historic magnitude.

Again, the ignorance of the elite usually leads to the slaughter of the innocent. Herein lies the dilemma, how does one find the time to sift through all the Geo-politics while real life is raging right along side in real time in their own communities and their own relationships?

Those holding a modern Ph.D. in philosophy or political science, unless they have a serious education and experience in other fields, will be hard-pressed to derive any sensible conclusions on automation, for example, barring some self-evident and easily accessible truths such as that increased automation removes workers from the manufacturing floor, thus increasing unemployment. This same Ph.D. will have very little knowledge of what goes into the fundamental technological principles relating to the automation of modern industry or, for that matter, how G-code interpreters work for Computer Numerical Control machining centers and what is required to run them—a knowledge domain belonging to college-educated engineers.

This is why we have the blind leading the blind. Those at the top are ill-informed by their own ignorance in attempting to make good decisions. This happen not just in government committees, think-tanks or even at the state and local level, but this also occurs in most major corporations these days as technology has outpaced the knowledge that middle and upper management were taught as little as one decade ago.

The article by Moon of Alabama is a good one to understand the pragmatic situation we find ourselves in with the latest Russian technology advances (such as underwater drones pictured below) as well as the coordinated drone (two pictures down) strike on the Saudi oil production facility.

Artistic rendering of a drone submersible

Martyanov explains why the models the ‘experts’ use fail. He shows how the advantage of one weapon system against another one can be calculated. People who have had a military education know these formulas. Those who only studied political science have likely never heard of them.

I will allow MOA to be the expert on that aspect of this book.

Houthi drones on display

My own interest lies in the philosophic underpinnings of Martyanov’s book itself. More posts on this book will be in the works shortly.

Stay tuned.

-SF1

Blowback from Stupid Empire/Kingdom Decisions – This Time in Saudi Arabia

I do hope that the readers of this blog are well versed in what can happen after empires oppress people toward a degree of rebellion. The thirteen American colonies stood up to the powerful British army and navy and then formed their own federated republic in its aftermath.

In 2019, on the world stage, we have seen a 4 year war by Saudi Arabia (aided by US arms and the US military) on its neighbor Yemen. The blogger “Moon of Alabama” does a great job of not only covering the events of the evening of 13SEP2019 but also the context for this ongoing war that has led to a humanitarian disaster inside of Yemen:

The war on Yemen, launched by the Saudi clown prince Mohammad bin Salman in 2015, cost Saudi Arabia several billion dollar per month. The Saudi budget deficit again increased this year and is expected to reach 7% of its GDP.  The country needs fresh money or much higher oil prices.

How does one country get away with attacking another country without consequences in 2019. Enter the United States of America, the American Empire. The Saudis actually launched the war in late MAR2015 with the full support of the Obama administration. They had that agreement ahead of time that the United States would provide the logistical support, the bombs themselves as well as assistance in targeting.  Not necessarily explicitly targeting of each bomb, but sort of the strategic technical assistance in making decisions about how to approach the war. In addition to this, was the assurance the United States government would provide the political and even diplomatic cover for the war.

Is this sick or what? Actually, this is the same guarentee the American Empire has given to Saudi Arabia’s middle east partner (in crime) Israel, but I digress. (I sense another blog post is needed for that one right there)

The Saudis have actually felt that they could get away with not just continuing to bomb civilian targets, infrastructure targets and establishing a thorough blockade, but this economic blockade of Yemen preventing the fuel, food and medicine from coming into the country that this poorest nation in the Middle East needs to have in order to survive is lunacy. Only the US could enable a nation to operate above international laws in this world.

So the continuity from the Obama administration through the Trump Administration is that all they care about is to support the Saudis because the Saudis are anti-Iranian. Human life is second to keeping the US citizens in fear about what the Iranians might do. Millions starve because the American Empire is acting as the world’s bully. This ain’t no shining city on a hill. This ain’t no land of the free, it is a land of sheep who care less about what its masters do across the globe.

Again, I digress.

Back to the events of a few nights ago when 10 drones controlled by Yemeni Houthi forces targeted two major Saudi oil installations, Abqaiq and Babqaiq only 60 km (37 miles) southwest of Aramco’s Dhahran headquarters, and caused several large fires.

The oil and gas conditioning plant in Abqaiq is the largest of the world. It sits at the center of Saudi Arabia’s oil and gas infrastructure. Abqaiq processes 6.8 million barrels of crude oil each day. More than two thirds of all Saudi oil and gas production runs through it. It is not clear yet how much of the widespread facility was destroyed.

Looking at this map and the sheer distance from Yemen, one does have to wonder about these ten drones being this accurate. My own questions include, is this a false flag? Could these have been launched from within the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia or from Iraq or Iran even?

‘Moon of Alabama’ is on it:

But drones may not have been the sole cause of the incident. Last night a Kuwaiti fishermen recorded the noise of a cruise missile or some jet driven manned or unmanned aircraft coming from Iraq. Debris found on the ground in Saudi Arabia seems to be from an Soviet era KH-55 cruise missile or from a Soumar, an Iranian copy of that design. The Houthi have shown cruise missiles, likely from Iran, with a similar design (see below). After an attack on Saudi oil installations in August there were accusations that at least some of the attacks came from Iraq. Iran was accused of having been involved in that attack. While this sounds unlikely it is not inconceivable.

The August 2019 turning point of this war with Yemen has the Saudi’s on their heels. The Saudi’s have no protection setup to the south of their oil production facilities. ‘Moon of Alabama’ said last month:

Saudi Arabia finally lost the war on Yemen. It has no defenses against the new weapons the Houthis in Yemen acquired. These weapons threaten the Saudis’ economic lifelines.

Houthi drones on display

Blowback is like Karma .. sometimes it is a b****. In my mind, this is partial justice for the Saudi’s decision (along with Israel, UK and US) to create ISIS and all the havoc it did in Iraq and Syria.

The projected Saudi expenses to get protection is expense and takes time and will not necessarily work.

… would require hundreds of Russian made Pantsyr-S1 and BUK air defense systems to protect Saudi oil installations.

In the mean time to shore up their financial state the Saudis recently renewed plans to sell a share of its state owned oil conglomerate Aramco.

What goes around, comes around. For whatever reason Saudi Arabia had for starting a war with the poorest country in the Middle East has coincided with low oil prices which is driving the Saudis to new levels of desperation in order to maintain control of the citizens of their country.

This will not end well.

Stay tuned

-SF1